Issues Driving Gun Violence

Gun crime is highly localized

From the FBI’s Supplemental Homicide Tables (2018):

  • 15 counties (out of 3,143), or 0.5% of all counties…
  • … with about 0.8% of the nation’s population…
  • had 25% of gun homicides.
  • About 50% of counties in any given year had zero gun homicides.
Illinois Firearm Homicide Share by County 2018

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In any given state, the concentration of homicides into one county is typical. For example, in Illinois, most homicides occur in Cook County (Chicago). In Maryland, 65% of gun homicides are in Baltimore City. In Tennessee, it is Shelby County (Memphis) with 45%.

Lack of policing and homicide resolution

In our study linked above, we asked why these 15 counties had 25% of gun homicides. Of the 26 variables we tested, understaffing of police departments and their associated low rate of solving homicides (AKA clearance rate) were the most important factors.

Street Gangs

The 2011 National gang Threat Assessment revealed a growing gang problem with direct consequences concerning gun violence.

  • Gang Violent Crime vs Gang Population, 2011

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    48% of violent crimes in most jurisdictions were caused by gangs, and upwards of 90% in some jurisdictions.

  • Gang membership grew 40% between 2009 and 2011. Mass media and the internet is driving fast and broader adoption.
    • Due to the internet, gang “culture” is not just an inner-city issue (though major metro areas are still the primary location for gang activity). Gang-like actions are occurring in suburbs even is there are no established gangs.
  • In 2011 there were over 1.4 million gang members and 33,000 gangs (which is roughly 10 gangs for every county).
    • All the estimates offered by agencies in the Assessment come to gang committing 10.7% of all violent crimes while composing 0.4% of the population.
    • The rate for gun crimes is likely higher due to gang ethos about fatal retaliatory violent.
  • Gang firearm acquisition is primarily through street sources.

What journalist need to understand, as is revealed in some of our research, is that gun violence is highly concentrated in specific neighborhoods mainly in major metro cities, and it is primarily associated with gang activity.