Category Archives: California

Young Thugs in California

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California is the home of the original “gangsta paradise” which was exported nationally. As such, a large study of the gang membership in California secondary schools helps to understand the scope of the overall gang problem, and by proxy how to reduce gun violence. Take-aways 4% of surveyed students claimed to be gang members. The rates are skewed by race and align with National Gang Center demographics. Big Sample, Biggish Problem Surveying 667,610 secondary students constitutes a large study, and thus the resulting numbers should be solid approximations… despite a possible self-reporting bias. The study covered 57 of 58 California counties over two years. They polled 667,610 secondary students in grades 7, 9 and 11, and after the few who dropped out of the survey or were for other reasons disqualified, about 31% of the enrolled population were sampled. Quite impressive. The weakness of the study, though, was that students … Continue reading →

Underreporting Gun Crime

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“The crime rate isn’t going down,” moaned a Twitter user. “The big cities are purposefully not reporting crime.” Neither of the above is accurate, but there is a crime reporting problem, in that some people may be misinterpreting data … for political gain. Take-aways There is significant, general nonreporting into the FBI’s new NIBRS system. Some well-documented hot counties with large populations are not reporting, which masks their gun crime and street gang data, including gun homicide rates. The systems that the Federal government has in place to encourage reporting into NIBRS are ineffective. NIBRS Mayhem For decades, the FBI orchestrated the Uniform Crime Reporting system (UCR). This was a nationwide program whereby all law enforcement agencies – city, county, state, campus, et cetera – were to report what crime incidents they processed. These were largely monthly counts of major categories of crime (robbery, murder, being a politician). And it … Continue reading →

Habitual Effects

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Repeat offenders in prison are not committing crimes on the streets. This was proven when in a national revolt over spiraling crime, 24 states passed habitual offender laws in just four years. The effects are compelling. Take-aways States with habitual offender laws: Incarcerate 73% more violent offenders. Reduce violent crime by 85%. Reduce homicides by 49%. The Prelude to Three-Strikes

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Gun Deaths and Religion

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I once joked that San Francisco was “spiritually horny.” It is true, being the birthplace of the Church of Satan, home of Jim Jones, and containing the largest concentration of upper-middle-class white Buddhists on the planet. And a lot of Catholics. Between the Spanish missions and a flood of Irish, you often can tell how many miles you have driven in California by how many Catholic churches you have passed. It also explains California’s low “gun death” rate. Takeaways Religious affiliation changes suicide statistics Places with higher percentages of Catholic and non-Christian congregants have fewer suicides. Since guns are a favored American means of suicide, this ripples into lower gun suicide rates and thus lower “gun death” rates. The Culture Clues Culture is the major determinant variable for violence, including violence upon oneself. In our book “Guns and Control”, we made the following cultural comparison: Last time I checked, the … Continue reading →

Newsom’s Gun Gaff

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“California has the toughest gun safety laws in the nation.” —Gavin Newsom Problem is, it has made no difference. Take-aways California’s suicide rate is low due to demographics. California’s gun homicide rate is slightly below average and tied with states with nearly no gun laws. Gun laws and gun homicide rates do not correlate at all, denuding claims about “toughest gun safety laws.” The suicide slide

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California Con

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There must be an election coming. The current California governor is making presidential maneuvers and the New York Times appears to be propping up his (inaccurate) statements about guns. I lived in that politician’s home turf for 22 years, during his political rise, so I have a deeper than average interest – and knowledge – of what the reality is, and in which alternate reality the politician resides. Main Take-aways California’s gun homicide rate is exactly the national average. Their overall suicide rate is rising, but is 29% lower that national averages, which bends the curve on gun suicide rates. For mass public shootings, California has 17% more incidents and 60% more deaths than the national average. The New York Times agitprop In a rather choice bit of partisan hackery, the New York Times (NYT) makes the following assertions about California and guns.

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Ammo Background … Checked

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The Gun Facts project received a provocative question: “We’ve had a few years of California’s Prop. 63. Can we point to any numbers that show whether the ammo background check law is having the desired effect?” The answers are: “Yes, we have numbers; no, it didn’t have an impact; but there are a lot of gotchas in the analysis.” The two experimental states Both New York and California passed laws that require criminal background checks before you can buy firearms and gun ammunition from a gun shop. New York passed their law in 2013 and California in 2017. These two states –The State of COVID and the State of Emergency – passed these measures along with other gun control actions (California, for example, established procedures for enforcing laws prohibiting firearm possession by specified persons), so it is technically impossible to weed out just ammunition retailing as a factor. But we … Continue reading →

Cali Suicide Calumny

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“Bury the lede” is an old newspaper trade term for not disclosing the interesting part of the story until so late in the article that few people read it. Paragraph #1, Senator Bedfellow gave money to a shelter for battered women; paragraph 48, Senator Bedfellow was charged with wife beating in 2006. It is a propaganda tactic, and it is used too often in gun policy research. In this case concerning suicides in California, the stunt was aided and abetted by the California government. Woe, thy name is Wintemute Long ago, a doctor with zero criminology credentials started publishing on gun control topics. His early research was, in a word, hilarious. One chunk of his intellectual effluvium used “observational evidence” about people at gun shows in two states. Generalized, the assumption the doctor made was that if Bill asked his friend Ted about a firearm for sale at the gun … Continue reading →

California-Nevada Gun Shows – Not What The Media Reported

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Page 10 in the appendix is a handy place to put a statement like: No significant relationships existed between gun shows and firearm injuries along known trafficking routes or when California’s 10-day waiting period was excluded. That is where one of many key clues about the lack of viability of a recent piece or research was filed. That tax money from the federal (NIH) and California (U.C. Berkeley) governments was used to generate this paper and the minor media frenzy that followed should give voters something to consider at election time. Key takeaways Raw data shows lower rates of California death and injury after gun shows. Even after questionable adjustments to the data, rates of change in gun misuse were small, possibly within random variations. Controls for other influences (confounding variables) were odd and incomplete. Unexplained, undocumented adjustments leave the quality of the research in grave doubt. No verification that the misused guns … Continue reading →

Newsom’s Nuisance

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Nobody has ever accused California’s Lieutenant Governor of being well informed. Sadly, he insists on proving it. Emboldened by presidential politicians strutting for gun control, Gavin Newsom is supporting a public ballot initiative to bring Californians four new forms of gun control. [EDITOR: It is noted that Newsom is running for Governor] Clear in his proposal is an utter lack of understanding about the nature of crime, violence and guns. Without exception, the proposals will: Do nothing to address the common and recurring forms of gun violence. Possibly push illegal activities to more underground means. Harass and legally imperil legitimate gun owners and hobbyist. So what doesn’t Gavin understand about gun policy? Nearly everything (and this opinion comes from someone who has lived in and around San Francisco for 20 years and watched Newsom’s dementia up close)? His proposals may be ignorant, but the method of announcing his support was … Continue reading →