Author Archives: Editorial Team

TASSS and Accuracy

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There is a lot of public confusion about school shootings. Some of this is intentional, due to data manipulation by activist groups. Some of it is because researchers are highly inconsistent about definitions and approaches. The good news is that there is a high-quality database that shows us a lot of interesting information about shootings in K–12 schools. The bad news is that the raw data is not publicly available, but we’ll get to that gripe later. Takeaways Media-cited K–12 shooting databases overstate such events by 40%. Most K–12 shooting events are in major metro areas and exceed their population-based share. Many K–12 shooting events share M.O. profiles of street gang retaliatory action. 26% of K–12 shooting perpetrators are “unknown” and not charged. Reliable Sourcing A small number of databases have been generated by sundry people and organizations in an attempt to document school shootings. Some of these data sets … Continue reading →

Habitual Effects

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Repeat offenders in prison are not committing crimes on the streets. This was proven when in a national revolt over spiraling crime, 24 states passed habitual offender laws in just four years. The effects are compelling. Take-aways States with habitual offender laws: Incarcerate 73% more violent offenders. Reduce violent crime by 85%. Reduce homicides by 49%. The Prelude to Three-Strikes

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Gun Violence Archive Assessment

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The Gun Violence Archive (GVA) is not a gold-standard data source. It isn’t even a reliable source. Yet it is commonly, and tragically, cited by people in the media who don’t know enough about gun violence data and criminology to understand why they should avoid citing GVA. We’ll attempt to clarify that. Take-aways about GVA History of data quality issues Incomplete scope of data Invents terms that do not comport with established definitions No transparency on operations and methods What the Heck is GVA? According to some, GVA is a real-time database of gun violence and an important research tool. To others it is an insult to serious researchers and a detriment to public education, and a naked agitprop tool. The truth is in between.

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Grounded

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“Stand your ground” laws are very misunderstood and heavily politicized. And from a data perspective, they don’t do much at all, though they appear to be a net positive. Take-aways “No duty to retreat” states saw mild declines in both total homicide and gun homicide rates. The majority of “no duty to retreat” states saw declines, where the majority of other states saw increases. Can You Stand It? The name itself, “stand your ground,” is a heroic meme and a bit of a misnomer. However, the non-politicized term “no duty to retreat law” is both cumbersome and provides neither the pro- or anti-gun factions with a phrase to inspire their followers… or fill them with dread. Indeed, “stand your ground” (the pro-gun phrase) evokes a “cowboy American” posture while “shoot first law” (the anti-gun phrase) evokes endangering chaos. Stripped of such fluffiness, “no duty to retreat” laws are two things … Continue reading →

Tracking Transgressors

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In a perfect world, a gun would tell you who used it in a crime … over and over again. Such is the stuff of science fiction. Gun serial numbers really don’t help (more on that later). But one program and set of sciences is helping to expose repeat offenders and maybe get serious bad actors off the streets. Take Aways 96% of guns recovered in crime are linked to one or more additional cases. 83% of guns were used in two or more crimes. These statistics may be low due to staffing problems in forensic labs. Repeat offenders and guns We know from decades of criminology and some indirect evidence that among the criminal class, there are some super predators who repeatedly misuse guns. Ignore for the moment perps like ATM muggers and liquor store bandits who rarely fire their guns at anyone (instead, the gun is used as … Continue reading →

Mass Attacks – Broadly Reviewed

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Mass stabbings don’t get as much media attention as mass shootings. Likewise for mass burnings, drownings or hit-and-runs. Since guns are the weapon in 73% of mass attacks, understanding mass attacks of all types might be key to preventing mass shootings. The federal government has studied this. Take-aways Non-gun mass attackers are not different than gun mass attackers. Changes in behavior precede stressors, the latter triggering attacks. The mental health community is letting at-risk people fail. Mass public attack stats The National Threat Assessment Center (NTAC), oddly a function of the Secret Service, cataloged five years of mass public attacks, which they define as when three or more people (not including perpetrators) were harmed in public or semi-public places. Like the Violence Project’s work on mass public shootings, NTAC looked deeply into the perpetrators’ lives, motives, modus operandi and more. It is important research for two reasons: motives of mass … Continue reading →

Gun Deaths and Religion

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I once joked that San Francisco was “spiritually horny.” It is true, being the birthplace of the Church of Satan, home of Jim Jones, and containing the largest concentration of upper-middle-class white Buddhists on the planet. And a lot of Catholics. Between the Spanish missions and a flood of Irish, you often can tell how many miles you have driven in California by how many Catholic churches you have passed. It also explains California’s low “gun death” rate. Takeaways Religious affiliation changes suicide statistics Places with higher percentages of Catholic and non-Christian congregants have fewer suicides. Since guns are a favored American means of suicide, this ripples into lower gun suicide rates and thus lower “gun death” rates. The Culture Clues Culture is the major determinant variable for violence, including violence upon oneself. In our book “Guns and Control”, we made the following cultural comparison: Last time I checked, the … Continue reading →

School Shootings Stats

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“We don’t live in more violent times. We live in more televised times.” – Marilyn Manson He is right and wrong, and one influences another. And such influences affect what happens in schools. A really long-term study has some clues. Take-aways Television bent the curve on the frequency of mass school shootings around 1966. Average death rates in school shootings has doubled since 1966. High school males are the top problem spot. 175 years of “data” A recent (2017) academic paper sought to dig into school shootings going all the way back to 1840. Audacious, but we have to accept that mining data before the advent of modern national media is a bit risky. A school shooting might have only made county news in 1899, but it’s national news today. Before wee dive in, we’ll note that the definition used in this paper was broad. Specifically, “An event is included … Continue reading →

Newsom’s Gun Gaff

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“California has the toughest gun safety laws in the nation.” —Gavin Newsom Problem is, it has made no difference. Take-aways California’s suicide rate is low due to demographics. California’s gun homicide rate is slightly below average and tied with states with nearly no gun laws. Gun laws and gun homicide rates do not correlate at all, denuding claims about “toughest gun safety laws.” The suicide slide

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Guns Not Leading Cause of Child Deaths

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“Do it for the children,” my California friend used to say in a bad Arnold Schwarzenegger imitation. Her point was that any time a politician mentioned children, they were trying to sneak something past you. She was right. The meme “guns are the leading cause of death for children” is popular but wrong, and it should be uttered in a thick Austrian accent. Define “child” A key problem with the English language is that one word can have many definitions. Add political opportunism, and there can be hundreds. Common dictionaries define “child” as “a person between birth and puberty.” This is why we tend to speak of “children” and “teenagers” and “adults” as distinctly different groups. And anyone who has raised a child from birth to beyond age 14 will attest that their darling little angels turn into disgusting little devils once hormones take command of their brains and bodies.

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