Category Archives: Crime and Guns

Illegal Guns and ”Disadvantage”

Gun Facts Posted on by

It is not news that “illegal guns” are the bulk of crime guns and that they are endemic in poor, inner-city neighborhoods. But it is good to have another datapoint. Take-Aways Legal availability of firearms is not correlated with firearm homicides. However, illegal firearm availability is. The number of firearm laws is not associated with firearm homicides either. Firearm homicide rates are amplified by economic and social disadvantages and family disruption. The Study and Proxy Paranoia A 2021 study, attempted to gauge legal and illegal firearm availability and measure those against firearm homicides. The authors also examined social factors including family disruption, economic disadvantage, youth disengagement, and more. The study represents an innovative approach to segregating misuse of legally obtained guns and illegally obtained guns.

Continue reading →

Fed Fail on Guns?

Gun Facts Posted on by

“What is the use of having sentencing guidelines if judges don’t follow them?” This is a common refrain from people of a “law and order” mindset, which included most of America in the early 1990s after the country endured a multi-decade, stratospheric climb in violent crime. To summarize this and related positions, the public believed that “locking up violent predators for extended periods works.” A recent report sheds a little more light on the subject and may well certify the notion. Take-aways: Firearm homicides increase when referrals for federal gun crimes decrease. Likewise, reducing the number of people charged with gun crimes is associated with an increase in firearm homicides. Reducing sentencing for gun crimes is associated with an increase in firearm homicides. This might be via a political shift that led to changes in referring, charging and sentencing for gun crimes and the associated higher penalties. Get-Tough Laws Starting … Continue reading →

Gang Triangulation

Gun Facts Posted on by

When it comes to gun violence, it’s tough to beat street gangs. They have made a sport of it. But the spooky question has been, “How much gun violence is gang violence?” Thanks to a little triangulation on our part, we think it is amplissimum. Major Take-aways Gangs likely constitute 85% of firearm homicides in the US. There is a close correlation between metropolitan gang-age homicides and estimates of gang populations by degrees of urbanization. The Data Dearth For all the great scorekeeping the FBI does, when it comes to murder, they have understandable gaps. Every year the FBI reports on the circumstances that led to a homicide, in their Expanded Homicide Tables. There are two rows of data that list what police were absolutely certain were gang related murders.

Continue reading →

Guns Not Used in Crime

Gun Facts Posted on by

What portion of America’s guns are used in crime? Somewhere between 0.00001% and 0.00477%, depending on the type of gun and crime. Take-aways Due to the repeat offenders, some guns get used in multiple gun crimes. Omitting likely crime repetitions, the number of guns in circulation used in crime drops. The combination of all gun types and the two major gun crimes means a mere 0.00477% of the gun supply is being used in crime. Multiple Uses, One Gun For years people have been taking estimates of the number of guns in public hands and dividing that into the number of gun crimes committed each year, to get a rough guess as to whether being “awash” in guns creates a problem. Typically, these rough takes estimate that less than 1% of guns are used in a crime any year. The problem is that this is a radical over-estimate. We know … Continue reading →

Targeting Firearm Homicides

Gun Facts Posted on by

To control 41% of gun homicides, target men in their early adulthood and living in metropolitan areas. Major Takeaways For victims and offenders, the concentration is in this group. These clusters are also closely statistically associated with blacks, though not isolated to any race. Limitations and Warnings Due to limitations within data sources, we pulled firearm homicide data from the CDC, and total homicide offender data from the FBI. This means there is some disassociation in the data, but since firearms figure prominently in homicides in general, and particularly in street gang homicides, variability is limited. We also had to adjust for different age groups between the CDC and the FBI data. All race-based numbers are population adjusted (i.e., homicide rates for any race are based on the number of people of that race, not the overall population). Who Gets Shot, Who Does the Shooting The fact is that gun … Continue reading →

Incarceration, Handguns and Homicides

Gun Facts Posted on by

“The homicide rate is going up because there are more guns!” That was a hysterical statement made by a talking head on a television news network. Sadly, this fellow is considered to be a journalist by people who evidently don’t own dictionaries or know of Edward R. Murrow. At the Gun Facts project, we pour through so much data that recognizing low grade equine effluvium, such as the statement above, is second nature for us. Yet our joy in life is converting hard numbers into knowledge and perspective so that people with high intellects (that would be you, kind reader) will see through such comical statements as what the nightly news anchor uttered. The basic take-away Starting in the early 1990s, after two decades of steadily rising violent crime rates, all forms of crime started dropping. This includes homicides. But after 1993 (more on that in a moment), while the … Continue reading →

Crime Leads Gun Buying

Gun Facts Posted on by

Which came first, the crime or the guns? Statistically, crime rates appear to precede gun sales … and for some obvious reasons. Main take-aways In 29% of states, there is a significant correlation between firearm homicides and gun sales. In the top half of states, per raw correlations, 85% have firearm homicides preceding gun sales. Lead/lag times of one to three years shows 22–28% of states having crime leading gun sales, and between 6-11% of states having gun sales leading crime. The Basic Debate The basic debate surrounding whether gun sales lead to gun crimes is kinda stupid.

Continue reading →

Background Checks and Homicides

Gun Facts Posted on by

If retail gun purchase background checks are any indication, sales of guns may keep some crime down. Backgrounds Checked The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) recently released a report on background checks. Though not every state was covered, the 40 reported gives of an unexpected view into homicides and recent gun sales. But before we dive in, here is the list of caveats: Only looks at 2016/7 data, so a snapshot in time. Gun sales may lag behind changes in local violence, so there is an unspecified lead/lag issue. Since the BJS also tells us that a minimum of 40% of crime guns come from street sources (not subject to background checks), looking at retail checks and crime might produce weak results anyway. Up, Up and Away Between 1999 and 2017, the U.S. population rose 16% while the number of background checks for gun purchases rose 99%. Clearly, America has … Continue reading →

Ghost Gun Gong Show

Gun Facts Posted on by

“Criminals are taking advantage of this loophole to obtain guns that are later used in crimes.” In California, perhaps. Elsewhere “ghost guns” are the “assault weapon” for the new millennium… rarely used, marginally worrisome, and perhaps a byproduct of strict gun control laws. The Summary Data Worst case, 1.7% of crime guns are DIY (e.g., “ghost guns”). But when the top six outlier cities (all in California) are excluded, the rate drops to 1.1%. 34% of agencies recovered no ghost guns. This compares to 8% of crime guns that have no visible serial numbers (obliterated + DIY). California is the primary state having DIY guns in circulation, averaging 8% of crime guns. What We Did to Tally DIY Guns used in crime We sent public records requests to the top 100 police agencies in the United States and asked them to tell us for 2019: How many crime guns were … Continue reading →

Pale Background

Gun Facts Posted on by

Universal background checks aren’t universal. But such things are being proposed in Congress. Ignoring how poorly the laws are drafted, we have to ask the basic question, “Will universal background checks do any good?” The answer is that conceivably 2% of crime gun transfers might get diverted, but the more likely number is zero. High Level Takeaways 37% of crime guns fall into the realm of those that “universal” background checks would affect. Of those, 41% still come from unregulatable sources. Assuming “intimate” partners would not do background checks, at most 2% of crime gun transfers would receive background checks … and that assumes all “friends and family” firearm transfers obey (huge assumption). How the Bureau of Justice Statistics Tipped Us Off For many years the Gun Facts project has been showing off this little graphic, compliments of the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), an agency of the federal government … Continue reading →