The revolving door of incarceration spins like a cyclone for street gang members. Since gangstas have a propensity for gun violence, this issue is part of solving gun violence in America.

Take-aways

• Between 1,556 and 2,304 new street gang gun murders per year are committed by prisoners released for prior gun violence offenses, amounting to 10.5–15.5% of gun homicides
• Upwards of 11,520 people are shot (injured or killed) by these released gang members each year.

What the academics calculated

We checked in with academic libraries and were surprised at how little work has specifically addressed recidivism of gang members. After discarding studies with tiny, and thus statistically fragile samples, and setting aside one that amalgamated both street and prison gangs, we had two left to gauge how often street gang members go back to prison.

In summary, street gang members are upwards of 200% more likely than non-street gang members to return to prison.

The only surprise is that this number is as low as it is, since American street gangs glorify criminality and use lethal violence to enforce even the pettiest of offenses.

Two factors illustrate and add to the problem: violent re-offenses and quick release.

According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), 32.4% of people released from prison who were convicted of a violent crime were nearly as likely to be rearrested for a violent crime. ¹ In other words, if you went to big boy jail for a violence charge, and later got out and went back in, the probability is that you returned because you were violent again.

It is the releasing of violent criminals that is problematic.

According again to BJS, individuals convicted of murder received an average sentence of 20.2 years (excluding life sentences, death sentences, and cases resulting in death during incarceration). But on average, these individuals served 53.6% of their sentences before their initial release. ²

In other words, the effective sentence for murder is a mere 10 years. A thug entering prison at age 18 for a gang homicide will be back on the streets by age 28, which is still within the “active gang age range.”

But that is just for homicide. Other violent crimes get shorter sentences, and if they also serve about half of their sentences, then we see them back in circulation quickly. A street gang member imprisoned for assault with a deadly weapon might get a sentence of only two years (the range is 2–12). His next assault with a deadly weapon could be a successful homicide.

The data dearth

As interesting and compelling as these datapoints are, they do not provide a direct tracing of gun violence offenders and their recidivism on other gun violence charges. As sophisticated as America’s crime data collection systems may be, they remain lacking in key areas.

That said, some additional studies add a little spackle to the cracks in the data:

• The U.S. Sentencing Commission found firearms offenders recidivated at a higher rate than non-firearms offenders:
  • 68.1% of firearms offenders were rearrested for a new crime within an eight-year follow-up period, compared to only 46.3% of non-firearms offenders.
  • Among firearms offenders who recidivated, assault was the most serious new charge given to 29.0% of them.
• The research also indicates that criminal history is a strong predictor of recidivism for firearms offenders:
  • Firearms offenders had higher recidivism rates than non-firearms offenders in every Criminal History Category.
  • In the highest Criminal History Category, 82.8% of firearms offenders recidivated compared to 72.9% of all other offenders.

But this research still doesn’t provide a complete violence-in, violence-in-again picture narrowed to our key question about gangs. Yes, most gang members carry guns and the gun crime rate among street gang members is high, but linking gang membership to crimes of violence and then to recidivism has a few missing pieces.

But we can make a ballpark estimate!

Data from BJS, The Sentencing Project, the Nation Drug Threat Survey, and scattered recidivism reports gives us data or estimates on the percent of prisoners that are street gang members, how many were in for gun violence, what their recidivism rates are, and rates for new gun violence charges. With two data-supported assumptions (convicts repeat the same category of crime and street gang members have higher violent crime conviction rates that non-gang members), we can estimate how many released from prison after serving time for a gun crime commit another gun crime.

The range is between 20 and 30%.

From prison release data we can also estimate how many gun violence prison releasees there were in a recent year. A total of 103,271 state prisoners were released after serving time for a gun violence offense in 2019. Using high and low estimates for gangs and their higher-than-average gun crime rate, this figure boils down to between 20,000 and 36,000 street gang members who served time for gun violence and were released.

Of these, between 7,780 and 11,520 will return to prison within five years for another gun violence offence.

There are approximately five times as many assault-related non-fatal gunshot woundings than gun homicides. Hence, we see between 1,556 and 2,304 new street gang gun murders by prisoners released each year for prior gun violence offenses, but upwards of 11,520 people shot and injured or killed.

Keep in mind that those street gang members who were released had served on average about half of their sentence.

Other Sources Used herein:

Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) – “Prisoners in 2022” Report

• Source for the percentage of state prison inmates convicted of violent offenses (63%) and general incarceration statistics for 2022.

Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) – 2012 Recidivism Study

• Provides data on recidivism rates, showing 70% of state prisoners rearrested within five years and 32.4% of violent offenders rearrested for another violent crime.

Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) – 2004 Survey of Inmates in State and Federal Correctional Facilities

• Offers historical data on firearm use in violent crimes (e.g., 25% of violent offenders used a firearm) and recidivism patterns.

National Drug Threat Survey (NDTS) 2007

• Cited in the Attorney General’s Report to Congress, providing the estimate of 123,000 documented gang members incarcerated in state facilities in 2007.

Attorney General’s Report to Congress on the Growth of Violent Street Gangs in Suburban Areas (2008)

• References the NDTS data and discusses gang membership in state correctional facilities.

Arizona Criminal Justice Commission – 2009 Gang Recidivism Study

• Found an 83.2% five-year recidivism rate for street gang members compared to 42.8% for non-gang members.

Huebner, B. M., et al. (2007) – “Gangs, Guns, and Drugs: Recidivism Among Serious Young Offenders”

• Study showing 45% of gang members reoffended within 33 months, often violently, compared to 28% of non-gang members.

Thornberry, T. P., & Burch, J. H. (1997) – Rochester Youth Development Study

• Indicates gang members accounted for 65% of all crimes and 86% of serious delinquent acts, with violent offense rates three times higher than non-gang peers.

The Sentencing Project – Reports on Incarceration and Crime Trends

• Provides context on gun-related violent crimes comprising 20%–30% of violent convictions in state prisons.

Decker, S. H., & Pyrooz, D. C. – Various Studies on Gang Behavior

• Research on urban gang activity, estimating 30%–50% of gang-related crimes involve firearms.

California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation – 2016 Recidivism Report

• State-level data showing a 68% rearrest rate within three years for firearm offenders, with some overlap into violent crimes.

Beck, A. J., & Blumstein, A. – 2012 Survey of 44 U.S. Prison Systems

• Reported an average of 19.1% of prison populations as members of security threat groups (STGs), ranging from 2% to 50%.