Category Archives: Crime and Guns

Firearm Violence, (non) Surprises

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The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) gives government a good name. At a time when the FBI’s crime data program switch-over caused massive under-reporting and the COVID+defund+riot era spiked crime, BJS once again provided data that helps understand the realities. Most of the data was unsurprising, but some stood out. Take-Aways Non-fatal gun violence fell alongside homicides after 1993. Much of the non-fatal data appears associated with gang demographics and modes. Half of gun violence is not reported to the police, relying instead on “street justice.” The Report click any image to enlarge The boringly titled report “Trends and Patterns in Firearm Violence, 1993–2023” provides a three-decade long look at sundry aspects of guns, violence, crime, gangs and so forth. The starting date for the report was the first of four straight years when 24 states, with over 50% of the nation’s population, passed habitual offender laws. This is a … Continue reading →

Pondering Permits

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Though it is difficult to ignore the possible unconstitutionality of requiring a permit to exercise an enumerated right, some states require residents to obtain a permit before they can purchase a handgun (or any gun). But do these permits make any difference? Some activist groups say so. Some academic studies say either yes or no. That a minimum of 43% of crime guns come from underground markets would indicate any effect would be marginal. After that… it gets complicated. Takeaways Permit-to-purchase laws have no material effect on gun homicide or suicide rates. The 1993-era anti-crime legislative movement limits pure test cases. A Dearth of Data Permit-to-purchase (PTP) laws have been touted as preventatives for homicides, suicides and gunshot injuries. We can measure the first two, not the last.

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Underreporting Gun Crime

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“The crime rate isn’t going down,” moaned a Twitter user. “The big cities are purposefully not reporting crime.” Neither of the above is accurate, but there is a crime reporting problem, in that some people may be misinterpreting data … for political gain. Take-aways There is significant, general nonreporting into the FBI’s new NIBRS system. Some well-documented hot counties with large populations are not reporting, which masks their gun crime and street gang data, including gun homicide rates. The systems that the Federal government has in place to encourage reporting into NIBRS are ineffective. NIBRS Mayhem For decades, the FBI orchestrated the Uniform Crime Reporting system (UCR). This was a nationwide program whereby all law enforcement agencies – city, county, state, campus, et cetera – were to report what crime incidents they processed. These were largely monthly counts of major categories of crime (robbery, murder, being a politician). And it … Continue reading →

Stolen Guns

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One way criminals gets guns is to steal them, or to buy guns from gun thieves. The question is if this is a major source of crime guns, and where is the leakage occurring? The answers are serious though the data is convoluted. Takeaways A net 154,746 guns (stolen minus recovered) enter the underground in a year. They are overwhelmingly taken from civilians. Most disappear from vehicles, not homes. Public carry is not a predictor of gun theft rates, but the adult population is. Gun theft rates are not covariant with gun homicide rates. A crabby note about data Data quality is the bane of research, and data quality on this issue is inconsistent. We’ll include rants about data as we explain our findings, but for starters, we’ll note that snapshot data (i.e., a one-year picture) is divorced from long-term data, and the long-term data required us to triangulate factors. … Continue reading →

De-Policing and Death

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Does reducing the number of police on the street cause crime to go up? It would seem obvious, but we at Gun Facts don’t like to assume anything. So we scanned about and found some analysis. According to two academic criminology papers, the answer is that reducing police presence on the streets absolutely increases homicides, and gun homicides. And it mainly affects poor people of color in major metropolitan areas. This agrees with our “Top 15 Murder Counties” analysis which showed that a lack of policing, and the associated lack of case clearances for homicides, lead to more gun murder. TAKEAWAYS: The mode of de-policing doesn’t matter. This hypothesis was tested against: Pandemic pullbacks (for public health safety and police outage reasons) Pullbacks in the face of the George Floyd riots De-staffing via “defund the police” and “criminal justice reform” movements The largest impact was in areas normally associated with … Continue reading →

Habitual Effects

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Repeat offenders in prison are not committing crimes on the streets. This was proven when in a national revolt over spiraling crime, 24 states passed habitual offender laws in just four years. The effects are compelling. Take-aways States with habitual offender laws: Incarcerate 73% more violent offenders. Reduce violent crime by 85%. Reduce homicides by 49%. The Prelude to Three-Strikes

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Top 15 Murder Counties

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When 0.5% of all counties, with 8% of the people, account for 25% of the homicides, you must pay attention. When those same counties, on average, have five times the murder rate than the average of all other counties, you must pay attention to details. When those 15 counties are also known to be dominated by a single city with a reputation for gang violence, you must pay attention to why people in those cities are different than the rest of the country. But, what makes those 15 counties uniquely violent? Major Takeaways 1% of counties with any homicides have 24.9% of the homicides, but only 8.4% of the population in counties where gun homicides occur. The states with these Hot 15 Counties have evenly distributed gun law scores ranging from A- to F by a gun control advocacy group. A number of factors (including population density, teen-age poverty, and … Continue reading →

Tracking Transgressors

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In a perfect world, a gun would tell you who used it in a crime … over and over again. Such is the stuff of science fiction. Gun serial numbers really don’t help (more on that later). But one program and set of sciences is helping to expose repeat offenders and maybe get serious bad actors off the streets. Take Aways 96% of guns recovered in crime are linked to one or more additional cases. 83% of guns were used in two or more crimes. These statistics may be low due to staffing problems in forensic labs. Repeat offenders and guns We know from decades of criminology and some indirect evidence that among the criminal class, there are some super predators who repeatedly misuse guns. Ignore for the moment perps like ATM muggers and liquor store bandits who rarely fire their guns at anyone (instead, the gun is used as … Continue reading →

Rust Pipeline

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There is no “iron pipeline” of guns trafficked from low gun control states to high ones. There is a rust pipeline of legally migrating guns mainly between neighboring states. Take-aways Most crime guns are retailed in the state where they were recovered, including in high gun control states. Most intrastate guns come from neighboring states, including other high gun control states. Most guns legally follow owners when they move between states, which frequently are neighboring states. Approximately 6,000,000 guns at minimum move legally between states each, and of these, 433,000 move between neighboring states Crime guns are largely local One reality is that most crime guns are retailed in the same state where they were recovered. Across all states, 68% of traced guns were retailed in the same state where they were recovered. But there are significant variations. Due to decades of restrictions, Washington, DC (not a state, but worth … Continue reading →

Medicated Murderers

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Psychiatric prescribing of psychotropic medications may be contributory to mass public shootings (MPS). Main Takeaways Increased use of psychotropic medications is associated with increased frequency of MPS. Non-psychiatric prescribing of these drugs is not strongly associated with overall MPS frequency. Psychotropic medications are associated with elevated rates of homicide, hence also associated with MPS. Perps receiving medications and psychiatric counseling are strongly associated, indicating mental health professionals are not catching warning signs. Over a quarter of a million at-risk and unmanaged adults are statistically likely to have “hostile” reactions from their drugs. A note about data and correlations Before going into a summary, much less the detailed data, know that this is not a one-problem-fits-all conclusion. There is no singular driver of MPS. What is herein is an exploration of trends in how America is (mis)medicating the population and how it may well contribute to some/many MPS. The data is … Continue reading →