The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) gives government a good name.

At a time when the FBI’s crime data program switch-over caused massive under-reporting and the COVID+defund+riot era spiked crime, BJS once again provided data that helps understand the realities. Most of the data was unsurprising, but some stood out.

Take-Aways

• Non-fatal gun violence fell alongside homicides after 1993.
• Much of the non-fatal data appears associated with gang demographics and modes.
• Half of gun violence is not reported to the police, relying instead on “street justice.”

The Report

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The boringly titled report “Trends and Patterns in Firearm Violence, 1993–2023” provides a three-decade long look at sundry aspects of guns, violence, crime, gangs and so forth.

The starting date for the report was the first of four straight years when 24 states, with over 50% of the nation’s population, passed habitual offender laws. This is a pivotal moment in U.S. history in regard to violent crime. Two- and three- strike offenders were left no option but prison, and their violent tendencies were confined there. Keep this in mind for the first non-surprise.

Non-Fatal Gun Violence Also Sank

As the homicide and gun homicide rates fell, so too did the rate of non-fatal gun violence.

Important here is that the definition of “non-fatal gun violence” is very broad. It is stated as “victimizations in which the offender had, showed, or used a firearm.” Notice that mere brandishing would be an act of “gun violence.”

The steep drop in the rate indicates that people with violent tendencies, when locked up, no longer commit any act regardless of the severity. Brandishing and homicides fell as one.

But both also bumped up during the COVID+defund+riot era. As we previously explored, during this era police pullbacks facilitated street crime. It is then unsurprising that a general retreat by police would embolden all forms of violence including non-fatal gun violence.

The Prime Gang Violence Ages

We know from National Gang Center data that gang recruitment starts at age 14. We also know from sundry criminology reports that young gang members are on a short leash until their later teens. Thus, it is unsurprising that the highest gun violence rates appear in the 18–24 age group, while the next highest group is those slightly older (25–34).

What is important is the magnitude of the difference in the age groups. The rate is four times larger for the 18–24 group than the 12–17 group. In short, the more a young person in rough neighborhoods is out among the street population, the more likely they are to be victimized. If they are males, the more likely they are to be gang members and thus more likely to victimize.

Location, Location, Location

Where people (and we’ll include gang members in the broad definition) commit violence is instructive. Firearm misuse, which is extremely high among gang types, occurs more often in their neighborhoods than in the home, for all forms of violence.

Among the three common “street” locations for violent crime, firearm violence is 16 points higher than for all violence (firearm and non-firearm combined). In other words, gun play in the streets surpasses gun violence in the home, or at commercial establishments or in schools.

Stranger Danger

We see more signs of the gang violence association when it comes to the relationship of the attacker and victim. This view is illuminating as it compares non-firearm and firearm violence rates against the victim’s relationship with the assailant.

Among relationships, firearms are less involved when the assailant is known (which is intuitive) and more when the attacker is a stranger (also intuitive).

For known relationships, guns are used 2–10 points less frequently in violent encounters, but for strangers the firearm rate is 19 points higher. Anyone watching news headlines of “mass shootings” in public knows that the assailants and victims (many of which are innocent bystanders) are not necessarily familiar with one another. A gang member hunting any rival gang member, or a specific rival member, may have never personally met. True, this applies to ATM muggings and street crimes like that, but those rarely are fatal. Herein, both fatal and non-fatal instances rise when the space is public and the association is nonexistent.

Cops Not Involved Because …

One reason crime, and particularly gun crime, remains high in certain neighborhoods is that much of the violence is not reported to the police.

We all know the “snitches get stitches” inner-city meme. But of the half of gun violence incidents that go unreported, only 10% of those instances are attributed to fear of reprisal.

So called “street justice” culture requires a person to take action themselves, which explains why 27% of gun violence instances result in victim retaliation of some sort (the retaliation might not be violent, but it is outside the realm of cops and courts). This is well above the 23% of victims who believe police cannot or will not do anything to help.

Non-Fatal Is Not A Non-problem

A real problem is that data on non-fatal gun violence is hard to come by. So it was great that the BJS not only produced this report, but provided the data tables and sources to go with it.

Non-fatal gun violence has social impacts. About 4,600 people a month are wounded, not killed, by guns. An emergency room visit for gunshot (assuming no admission afterwards) costs about $5,250. All told, that’s about $290 million a year just for ER work. Statistically, much of that will be indigent care via Medicaid.

But there are other hard costs. Police interventions, investigations, lost work time, and more. All in all, gun woundings are a bigger fiscal problem than gun deaths. Remember this the next time you read a news story about a gang-banger shooting into a crowd while targeting one rival gang member.