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Mass Shootings, Private and Public

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Even sullied terms can be analyzed. We came across a quality study that looks at “mass [not-just-public] shootings” and paints a not-quite-alarming story. Main Take-aways As defined more broadly herein: Mass shootings are not steadily increasing and are decreasing as a function of population. Most mass shootings are in private residences and are “family related.” Assault weapons are a minority share of guns used. A third of assailants had mental health issues, higher than the general population but lower than mass public Public and non-public The term “mass public shooting” has had a multi-decade, criminology-derived definition (4+ dead, not including the perp, in a single public place). These events, tragic as they are, are very rare; and in terms of dead people, they account for a fraction of a fraction of gun homicides each year. This fact has proved so inconvenient to some activist groups (including some activist media) that … Continue reading →

Big Gun Data

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We normally don’t post a blog entry for a single academic paper, but this one is important because it is the largest well-conducted survey concerning gun ownership and self-defense with guns (as well as other topics) to date. The survey size makes most of the data unassailable, and thus “gold standard.” Take-aways 54,000 people contacted, 16,708 gun owners within that group. Low-side concurrence with other surveys concerning defensive gun use (DGU). New insight into public carry and self-defense, both public and private. Scale data for assault weapons (AR-15s specifically) and magazine capacities more than 10 rounds. Why this paper matters Much of what we know about guns has some limitations:

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Culture, Homicides and Violence

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Who is more likely to shoot you, an NRA member or a member of the Crips? The primary difference between these two groups is culture. NRA members tend to be law-and-order types, whereas Crips (or members of any garden variety American street gang) are rather indifferent or openly hostile to laws. It is the adherence to a social norm – in this case, obeying or not obeying the law – that influences one’s probability to act violently, which in tern means using a gun to commit unilateral violence (e.g., not self-defense). We saw this in one study that details the propensity of people in poor and crime-ridden neighborhoods to get and use guns for criminal activities. But what cultural norms influence such behavior? We found a cross-national survey of culture and wanted to see if we could map similarities between nations concerning culture, violence and guns. The Main Take-Aways Gun … Continue reading →

California Con

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There must be an election coming. The current California governor is making presidential maneuvers and the New York Times appears to be propping up his (inaccurate) statements about guns. I lived in that politician’s home turf for 22 years, during his political rise, so I have a deeper than average interest – and knowledge – of what the reality is, and in which alternate reality the politician resides. Main Take-aways California’s gun homicide rate is exactly the national average. Their overall suicide rate is rising, but is 29% lower that national averages, which bends the curve on gun suicide rates. For mass public shootings, California has 17% more incidents and 60% more deaths than the national average. The New York Times agitprop In a rather choice bit of partisan hackery, the New York Times (NYT) makes the following assertions about California and guns.

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Single Parent Gun Violence

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Does not having a father in the home increase the odds of committing a homicide? It appears so, though there are a few factors that complicate things. But leave it to say that fatherless homes might be manufacturing more murders. Major Take-aways Both homicide and firearm homicide rates are well associated with fatherless homes. This matches with nonmarital birth rates by some demographics. A Bit-o-Background Any number of studies have focused on race, urbanization, and poverty as contributing factors to young men murdering. For decades criminologists have noted that the odds of being a murder victim or perpetrator is vastly higher if you are poor, live in a metropolitan area, and are black. Many people openly speculate that part of the puzzle might be the disruption of traditional family structures within the inner cities.

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Permitless Murders

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In August of 2022, half of the states in America will (or did, depending on when you read this) switch to “permitless carry,” which means residents (and, depending on the state, occasionally non-residents) can carry firearms concealed in public and not have to obtain a permit first. Naturally, this scares some people. So, with seven states currently having been permitless long enough for analysis, it’s worth seeing if the fear is warranted. Main Take-Aways Compared to states that made no changes in concealed carry laws, there was no change in homicide rates. When we remove one outlier state, there is a drop in homicides in the permitless states compared to states that made no change. When we eliminate a sparsely populated frontier state, most trends are flat or downward. Comparing Apples and Pineapples Our objective is to see if states switching to permitless carry have a noticeable change in the … Continue reading →

Trends in Mass Public Shootings

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The largest multilingual international database of mass public shootings (MPS) tells us that they are increasing globally, less rapidly in the United States, but the average number of deaths in American MPSs is rising faster than the world at large. Let us then look at some of the factors that may contribute to mass shootings and see if there are rising rates of underlying causes. Main Take-aways 41% of mass public shooters with mental health issues got their guns legally, and the rate is rising. MPSs are on the rise, but not steeply. Handguns are outpacing all other weapon types, including “assault weapons.” Higher capacity magazines are radically increasing in use. The rate of legally acquired guns is rising much faster than illegally obtained guns. Precautions and Notes Repeat after me… mass public shootings are statistically rare events, and as such, trends and isolating causes are of a fragile nature.

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D.C. Guns and Gangs

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If Washington, D.C. is an indicator, criminal justice reform should start with reforming criminals. A recent dive into gun homicides in the nation’s capital shows that gun violence there remains a street gang problem, as is the case in most metro areas. Take-aways Most gun homicides are committed by “gang age” males. Half of suspects have been in the criminal judicial system since their juvenile ages. All (on average) had prior charges of firearm violence. A likely minimum of 52% of homicides are gang or gang nexus related. Guns in D.C. after decades of banning guns Let’s start by noting that D.C. is the per capita murder capital as well as the nation’s capital.

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Illegal Guns and ”Disadvantage”

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It is not news that “illegal guns” are the bulk of crime guns and that they are endemic in poor, inner-city neighborhoods. But it is good to have another datapoint. Take-Aways Legal availability of firearms is not correlated with firearm homicides. However, illegal firearm availability is. The number of firearm laws is not associated with firearm homicides either. Firearm homicide rates are amplified by economic and social disadvantages and family disruption. The Study and Proxy Paranoia A 2021 study, attempted to gauge legal and illegal firearm availability and measure those against firearm homicides. The authors also examined social factors including family disruption, economic disadvantage, youth disengagement, and more. The study represents an innovative approach to segregating misuse of legally obtained guns and illegally obtained guns.

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Mental Mass Contrast

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It is well established that most mass public shooters (MPS) have mental health problems. The question is whether they are more prone to instability than the public and by how much. The answer is upwards of nine times as unstable. Major Take-aways Depending on the subtopic, MPSs are 1.4 to 9.0 times more likely to have mental health problems. Most commonly, they have “thought disorders” – a characteristic of psychotic mental illness – at nine times the rate of the general public. The Violence Project and Their Book We have discussed the Violence Project and mental health before. They study MPS due to significant funding (for which we are green with jealously) and unprecedented access to uncommon data. They have produced the most comprehensive database on MPS available. The Gun Facts project will continue to maintain our mass public shooting database because we track important variables that the Violence Project … Continue reading →