Category Archives: Crime and Guns

Top 15 Murder Counties

Gun Facts Posted on 2023/08/27 by

When 0.5% of the counties, with 8% of the people, account for 25% of the homicides, you must pay attention. When those same counties, on average, have five times the murder rate than the average of all other counties, you must pay attention to details. When those 15 counties are also known to be dominated by a single city with a reputation for gang violence, you must pay attention to why people in those cities are different than the rest of the country. But, what makes those 15 counties uniquely violent? Major Takeaways 5% of counties with any homicides have 24.9% of the homicides, but only 8.4% of the population. The states with these Hot 15 Counties have evenly distributed gun law scores ranging from A- to F by a gun control advocacy group. A number of factors (including population density, teen-age poverty, and more) help explain their disparity. It … Continue reading →

Tracking Transgressors

Gun Facts Posted on 2023/06/08 by

In a perfect world, a gun would tell you who used it in a crime … over and over again. Such is the stuff of science fiction. Gun serial numbers really don’t help (more on that later). But one program and set of sciences is helping to expose repeat offenders and maybe get serious bad actors off the streets. Take Aways 96% of guns recovered in crime are linked to one or more additional cases. 83% of guns were used in two or more crimes. These statistics may be low due to staffing problems in forensic labs. Repeat offenders and guns We know from decades of criminology and some indirect evidence that among the criminal class, there are some super predators who repeatedly misuse guns. Ignore for the moment perps like ATM muggers and liquor store bandits who rarely fire their guns at anyone (instead, the gun is used as … Continue reading →

Rust Pipeline

Gun Facts Posted on 2023/04/29 by

There is no “iron pipeline” of guns trafficked from low gun control states to high ones. There is a rust pipeline of legally migrating guns mainly between neighboring states. Take-aways Most crime guns are retailed in the state where they were recovered, including in high gun control states. Most intrastate guns come from neighboring states, including other high gun control states. Most guns legally follow owners when they move between states, which frequently are neighboring states. Approximately 6,000,000 guns at minimum move legally between states each, and of these, 433,000 move between neighboring states Crime guns are largely local One reality is that most crime guns are retailed in the same state where they were recovered. Across all states, 68% of traced guns were retailed in the same state where they were recovered. But there are significant variations. Due to decades of restrictions, Washington, DC (not a state, but worth … Continue reading →

Medicated Murderers

Gun Facts Posted on 2023/04/14 by

Psychiatric prescribing of psychotropic medications may be contributory to mass public shootings (MPS). Main Takeaways Increased use of psychotropic medications is associated with increased frequency of MPS. Non-psychiatric prescribing of these drugs is not strongly associated with overall MPS frequency. Psychotropic medications are associated with elevated rates of homicide, hence also associated with MPS. Perps receiving medications and psychiatric counseling are strongly associated, indicating mental health professionals are not catching warning signs. Over a quarter of a million at-risk and unmanaged adults are statistically likely to have “hostile” reactions from their drugs. A note about data and correlations Before going into a summary, much less the detailed data, know that this is not a one-problem-fits-all conclusion. There is no singular driver of MPS. What is herein is an exploration of trends in how America is (mis)medicating the population and how it may well contribute to some/many MPS. The data is … Continue reading →

Newsom’s Gun Gaff

Gun Facts Posted on 2023/02/24 by

“California has the toughest gun safety laws in the nation.” —Gavin Newsom Problem is, it has made no difference. Take-aways California’s suicide rate is low due to demographics. California’s gun homicide rate is slightly below average and tied with states with nearly no gun laws. Gun laws and gun homicide rates do not correlate at all, denuding claims about “toughest gun safety laws.” The suicide slide

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Guns Not Leading Cause of Child Deaths

Gun Facts Posted on 2023/02/10 by

“Do it for the children,” my California friend used to say in a bad Arnold Schwarzenegger imitation. Her point was that any time a politician mentioned children, they were trying to sneak something past you. She was right. The meme “guns are the leading cause of death for children” is popular but wrong, and it should be uttered in a thick Austrian accent. Define “child” A key problem with the English language is that one word can have many definitions. Add political opportunism, and there can be hundreds. Common dictionaries define “child” as “a person between birth and puberty.” This is why we tend to speak of “children” and “teenagers” and “adults” as distinctly different groups. And anyone who has raised a child from birth to beyond age 14 will attest that their darling little angels turn into disgusting little devils once hormones take command of their brains and bodies.

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Big Gun Data

Gun Facts Posted on 2022/09/15 by

We normally don’t post a blog entry for a single academic paper, but this one is important because it is the largest well-conducted survey concerning gun ownership and self-defense with guns (as well as other topics) to date. The survey size makes most of the data unassailable, and thus “gold standard.” Take-aways 54,000 people contacted, 16,708 gun owners within that group. Low-side concurrence with other surveys concerning defensive gun use (DGU). New insight into public carry and self-defense, both public and private. Scale data for assault weapons (AR-15s specifically) and magazine capacities more than 10 rounds. Why this paper matters Much of what we know about guns has some limitations:

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Culture, Homicides and Violence

Gun Facts Posted on 2022/08/01 by

Who is more likely to shoot you, an NRA member or a member of the Crips? The primary difference between these two groups is culture. NRA members tend to be law-and-order types, whereas Crips (or members of any garden variety American street gang) are rather indifferent or openly hostile to laws. It is the adherence to a social norm – in this case, obeying or not obeying the law – that influences one’s probability to act violently, which in tern means using a gun to commit unilateral violence (e.g., not self-defense). We saw this in one study that details the propensity of people in poor and crime-ridden neighborhoods to get and use guns for criminal activities. But what cultural norms influence such behavior? We found a cross-national survey of culture and wanted to see if we could map similarities between nations concerning culture, violence and guns. The Main Take-Aways Gun … Continue reading →

California Con

Gun Facts Posted on 2022/07/24 by

There must be an election coming. The current California governor is making presidential maneuvers and the New York Times appears to be propping up his (inaccurate) statements about guns. I lived in that politician’s home turf for 22 years, during his political rise, so I have a deeper than average interest – and knowledge – of what the reality is, and in which alternate reality the politician resides. Main Take-aways California’s gun homicide rate is exactly the national average. Their overall suicide rate is rising, but is 29% lower that national averages, which bends the curve on gun suicide rates. For mass public shootings, California has 17% more incidents and 60% more deaths than the national average. The New York Times agitprop In a rather choice bit of partisan hackery, the New York Times (NYT) makes the following assertions about California and guns.

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Single Parent Gun Violence

Gun Facts Posted on 2022/07/16 by

Does not having a father in the home increase the odds of committing a homicide? It appears so, though there are a few factors that complicate things. But leave it to say that fatherless homes might be manufacturing more murders. Major Take-aways Both homicide and firearm homicide rates are well associated with fatherless homes. This matches with nonmarital birth rates by some demographics. A Bit-o-Background Any number of studies have focused on race, urbanization, and poverty as contributing factors to young men murdering. For decades criminologists have noted that the odds of being a murder victim or perpetrator is vastly higher if you are poor, live in a metropolitan area, and are black. Many people openly speculate that part of the puzzle might be the disruption of traditional family structures within the inner cities.

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