Violence Project Policy Problem

Gun Facts Posted on by

When a friend makes a mistake, you kindly nudge them back into a more rational mode. That is what I am doing now for the Violence Project. The Violence Project, Before and Now Gun Facts has been both a fan and a friend to the Violence Project. In their beginning, they were like us: data butlers who did not make policy recommendations. Their resources (much more than the Gun Facts project has or will ever likely receive) allowed them to gather an incredible amount of detailed information about mass public shooting (MPS) events and perpetrators. We also have helped the Violence Project. During a periodic update of the Gun Facts Mass Public Shooting database, we identified three such events in our database that were missing in theirs. So, we sent emails with pertinent details, and they responded with kindness and gratitude. But in recent times, we have noticed that they … Continue reading →

Random Mass Perspectives

Gun Facts Posted on by

Mass public shootings (MPS) are not random, despite appearances. Though the Gun Facts Project has uncovered some amazing insights about these events, some induced downtime gave us leisure to explore niches in the MPS data… and we uncovered some new perspectives. The Big Database Bust At Gun Facts, we have an internal project to warehouse crime data and other data for rapid recall and creative exploration. During the conceptualization phase, the project was jokingly named “Data Whore.” Unfortunately, the name stuck. We had loaded the old FBI Uniform Crime Reports going back to the 1980s with county-level demographic and population numbers, had built a few handy data views (SQL views for our fellow geeks), and more. Then the database crashed, got massively corrupted, and led to a week-long recovery and migration to a new database technology that isn’t as prone to failure under massive operations (we were deleting 22M rows … Continue reading →

Worth the Wait?

Gun Facts Posted on by

Do waiting periods help or hurt? The answer is “it’s messy,” but in short, they are ineffective. Take-aways Only one of 16 study combinations showed any significant change. On one statistical measure, the effects in the other 15 combinations were likely random. The Claim Advocates claim that waiting periods reduce homicides and suicides. The theory (which, as you will see, is wrong) is that some significant number of murders and suicides occur spontaneously. Advocates proffer that a person who gets angry or depressed goes to a gun store and then murders someone or kills themselves right away. This assumption does not conform with what we know about most gun homicides and suicides.

Continue reading →

The Gun Facts CCW Scorecard (first edition)

Gun Facts Posted on by

It is time for a new method of grading states based on their concealed-carry regimes. Gun Facts has created one, and the findings are stark. Why Is A New System Needed? The old system classified states by the generality of how concealed-carry permits (CCWs) were provided. The major classifications were: No Carry: Carrying firearms in public was not allowed. May Issue: The government, largely local, had discretion on if and to whom a permit would be issued. Shall Issue: Providing a person was not prohibited (i.e., prior felony conviction) the government would issue a permit. Permitless: No permit was required providing you were not a prohibited person. However, this system was in and of itself inadequate, and the Supreme Court’s ruling in the Bruen case changed much. The weaknesses of the old classification system were manifold:

Continue reading →

Homicide Breakdown 2023

Gun Facts Posted on by

The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) recently diced homicide data for 2023. Some of the data is not surprising, and some is. Take-aways Homicides and gun use skew significantly to the demographics of street gangs. The Dismal Reminder   Much of the BJS’s report amplifies what has been seen in criminology data for decades, namely that being a young, black male puts you in the crosshairs… quite literally.

Continue reading →

Gun Homicides by Household

Gun Facts Posted on by

How many household guns are used in homicides? Nearly none. Takeaways Aside from career crimes and gang related activities, 0.004% of households with guns are involved in gun homicides. What Started This Analysis A podcast interviewer sent me a set of questions with which to prep, and he asked about private gun ownership and crime in a way I had not seen phrased before. Given some advances in data and insights into gun homicides, I felt the open question needed to be addressed. The core question was: “Outside of intentional or spontaneous criminal activities (gangs, robberies, burglaries, aggravated assaults, etc.) what percentage of private gun owners committed a gun homicide?”

Continue reading →

Universal Background Bust

Gun Facts Posted on by

“Universal” background checks are anything but universal. Criminals don’t bother. Which is why we see only modest changes in some states that passed such laws, though the average of all such states shows a tiny increase in gun murders. That tiny increase was significantly lower than in states without such laws. Take-aways A small net increase in gun homicide rates (all things being equal) after passing universal background checks A tiny but larger increase in the same period for state that lacked such laws There were significant, concurrent anti-crime initiatives during some enactment periods which muddies the picture The Concept and The Reality “Universal” background checks impose a requirement on private gun buyers and sellers to conduct a background check on the buyer as would occur in a gun store. This is a case of “nibbling around the edges.” The Bureau of Justice Statistics tells us

Continue reading →

Direct Exposure to Nonsense

Gun Facts Posted on by

There is weak research, improper research, and misleading research. Then there is stupid research, which often incorporates all of the above. We recently encountered what can charitably be described as stupid gun research of a variety where common sense appears to be a foreign concept to the authors. JAMA That In Your Pipe And Smoke It Yet again the Journal of the American Medical Association committed criminology malpractice. In this case, the corpse of intellectual reason was slayed by a paper titled Direct Exposure to Mass Shootings Among US Adults. We would normally just put a new entry on our Bad Research Roster page, which you should reference any time someone lobs a “study” at you. But this piece of work (or piece of something) was so deeply defective and comical, it calls for a blog entry to not only inform you, but teach how to detect industrial-grade buncombe. The … Continue reading →

Gangs, Recidivism and Guns

Gun Facts Posted on by

The revolving door of incarceration spins like a cyclone for street gang members. Since gangstas have a propensity for gun violence, this issue is part of solving gun violence in America. Take-aways Between 1,556 and 2,304 new street gang gun murders per year are committed by prisoners released for prior gun violence offenses, amounting to 10.5–15.5% of gun homicides Upwards of 11,520 people are shot (injured or killed) by these released gang members each year. What the academics calculated We checked in with academic libraries and were surprised at how little work has specifically addressed recidivism of gang members. After discarding studies with tiny, and thus statistically fragile samples, and setting aside one that amalgamated both street and prison gangs, we had two left to gauge how often street gang members go back to prison. Gang Members Non-Gang Members Higher Risk 3 years 35.4% 23.5% 150% 5 years 83.2% 42.8% … Continue reading →

Recidivism and Violence

Gun Facts Posted on by

Some criminals never learn. Well, actually most don’t. But when it comes to violence, and hence gun violence, this is an important part of the puzzle. Take-aways 2% of prison admissions are for violent crimes. 64% of admitted prisoners had their first arrest in the teen years. 30% of them account for 51% of prior arrests. Large, Oldish Data, Frustrating Study When a reputable (and positively OCD) organization like the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) reviews over 90,000 newly incarcerated convicts, and repeats the stunt 15 years later, you have an admirably robust study. Which had one aching gap.

Continue reading →