Author Archives: Editorial Team

Mental Mass Contrast

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It is well established that most mass public shooters (MPS) have mental health problems. The question is whether they are more prone to instability than the public and by how much. The answer is upwards of nine times as unstable. Major Take-aways Depending on the subtopic, MPSs are 1.4 to 9.0 times more likely to have mental health problems. Most commonly, they have “thought disorders” – a characteristic of psychotic mental illness – at nine times the rate of the general public. The Violence Project and Their Book We have discussed the Violence Project and mental health before. They study MPS due to significant funding (for which we are green with jealously) and unprecedented access to uncommon data. They have produced the most comprehensive database on MPS available. The Gun Facts project will continue to maintain our mass public shooting database because we track important variables that the Violence Project … Continue reading →

Fed Fail on Guns?

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“What is the use of having sentencing guidelines if judges don’t follow them?” This is a common refrain from people of a “law and order” mindset, which included most of America in the early 1990s after the country endured a multi-decade, stratospheric climb in violent crime. To summarize this and related positions, the public believed that “locking up violent predators for extended periods works.” A recent report sheds a little more light on the subject and may well certify the notion. Take-aways: Firearm homicides increase when referrals for federal gun crimes decrease. Likewise, reducing the number of people charged with gun crimes is associated with an increase in firearm homicides. Reducing sentencing for gun crimes is associated with an increase in firearm homicides. This might be via a political shift that led to changes in referring, charging and sentencing for gun crimes and the associated higher penalties. Get-Tough Laws Starting … Continue reading →

Mass Global Mix-up

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“Mass public shootings are rising faster around the world than in the United States!” “Mass public shootings are rising faster in the United States than the rest of the world!” Stuff like this makes me dislike Twitter even more than I normally do. That I saw these contradictory statements, each citing “real data,” within 60 seconds of one another was my first clue that the pro- and anti-gun camps were shouting past one another and that somebody was not paying attention. Why the division? It comes down to definitions and data sources. The Data Disagreement Two academics – John Lott and Adam Lankford – have published papers that calculate the number of mass public shootings (MPSs) around the globe. These papers come to different conclusions and have caused one of these two to abandon the normal congenial language normally bandied by studied men and women. Geek smarminess aside, we see … Continue reading →

Permit Punditry

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North Carolina is thinking about ending its Jim Crow era law requiring a permit to purchase a handgun. Naturally one side claims that an Armageddon of gun play will follow. The other side is saying “Oh, calm down, you Dixiecrats.” Who is right can be demonstrated with surprising ease. Major Take-Aways Purchase permits do not impede gun violence and might encourage it. Lack of such permits do not increase gun violence. The Purpose and Unspoken Purpose of Handgun Purchase Permits The common justification for purchase permits is so that the local constabulary (typically the county sheriff) can ensure that only non-criminal types can obtain a permit and thus buy a handgun at retail outlets (gun stores today, hardware stores back when many of these laws were originally enacted). Most states went further and disallowed private sales of handguns without a permit, often enforced by also requiring the private sales to … Continue reading →

Guns Not Used in Crime

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What portion of America’s guns are used in crime? Somewhere between 0.00001% and 0.00477%, depending on the type of gun and crime. Take-aways Due to the repeat offenders, some guns get used in multiple gun crimes. Omitting likely crime repetitions, the number of guns in circulation used in crime drops. The combination of all gun types and the two major gun crimes means a mere 0.00477% of the gun supply is being used in crime. Multiple Uses, One Gun For years people have been taking estimates of the number of guns in public hands and dividing that into the number of gun crimes committed each year, to get a rough guess as to whether being “awash” in guns creates a problem. Typically, these rough takes estimate that less than 1% of guns are used in a crime any year. The problem is that this is a radical over-estimate. We know … Continue reading →

Targeting Firearm Homicides

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To control 41% of gun homicides, target men in their early adulthood and living in metropolitan areas. Major Takeaways For victims and offenders, the concentration is in this group. These clusters are also closely statistically associated with blacks, though not isolated to any race. Limitations and Warnings Due to limitations within data sources, we pulled firearm homicide data from the CDC, and total homicide offender data from the FBI. This means there is some disassociation in the data, but since firearms figure prominently in homicides in general, and particularly in street gang homicides, variability is limited. We also had to adjust for different age groups between the CDC and the FBI data. All race-based numbers are population adjusted (i.e., homicide rates for any race are based on the number of people of that race, not the overall population). Who Gets Shot, Who Does the Shooting The fact is that gun … Continue reading →

Incarceration, Handguns and Homicides

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“The homicide rate is going up because there are more guns!” That was a hysterical statement made by a talking head on a television news network. Sadly, this fellow is considered to be a journalist by people who evidently don’t own dictionaries or know of Edward R. Murrow. At the Gun Facts project, we pour through so much data that recognizing low grade equine effluvium, such as the statement above, is second nature for us. Yet our joy in life is converting hard numbers into knowledge and perspective so that people with high intellects (that would be you, kind reader) will see through such comical statements as what the nightly news anchor uttered. The basic take-away Starting in the early 1990s, after two decades of steadily rising violent crime rates, all forms of crime started dropping. This includes homicides. But after 1993 (more on that in a moment), while the … Continue reading →

Background Checks and Homicides

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If retail gun purchase background checks are any indication, sales of guns may keep some crime down. Backgrounds Checked The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) recently released a report on background checks. Though not every state was covered, the 40 reported gives of an unexpected view into homicides and recent gun sales. But before we dive in, here is the list of caveats: Only looks at 2016/7 data, so a snapshot in time. Gun sales may lag behind changes in local violence, so there is an unspecified lead/lag issue. Since the BJS also tells us that a minimum of 40% of crime guns come from street sources (not subject to background checks), looking at retail checks and crime might produce weak results anyway. Up, Up and Away Between 1999 and 2017, the U.S. population rose 16% while the number of background checks for gun purchases rose 99%. Clearly, America has … Continue reading →

Pale Background

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Universal background checks aren’t universal. But such things are being proposed in Congress. Ignoring how poorly the laws are drafted, we have to ask the basic question, “Will universal background checks do any good?” The answer is that conceivably 2% of crime gun transfers might get diverted, but the more likely number is zero. High Level Takeaways 37% of crime guns fall into the realm of those that “universal” background checks would affect. Of those, 41% still come from unregulatable sources. Assuming “intimate” partners would not do background checks, at most 2% of crime gun transfers would receive background checks … and that assumes all “friends and family” firearm transfers obey (huge assumption). How the Bureau of Justice Statistics Tipped Us Off For many years the Gun Facts project has been showing off this little graphic, compliments of the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), an agency of the federal government … Continue reading →

Callous Kids

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One aspect of inner-city violence with guns From crime statistics and criminology studies we know that: Gun violence is a huge problem in poor, inner-city neighborhoods. The prime gang recruitment ages are between 14 and 19. Gun carrying, almost always done illegally, is common. An open question is “what drives these bad decisions, to associate with street gangs, acquire guns illegally, and to use them?” Here is one element worth noting: that emotionally callous kids are more prone to gun play than others. What is “callousness”? Both the dictionary and the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM) of Mental Disorders defines this. The dictionary definition is more straightforward and says to be callous is to be “insensitive, indifferent, unsympathetic”. The DSM has a special specifier identifying people with “limited prosocial emotions”. Same thing, different wording. A new study studied if callous kids were (a) more likely to carry a gun and … Continue reading →