Incarceration, Handguns and Homicides

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“The homicide rate is going up because there are more guns!” That was a hysterical statement made by a talking head on a television news network. Sadly, this fellow is considered to be a journalist by people who evidently don’t own dictionaries or know of Edward R. Murrow. At the Gun Facts project, we pour through so much data that recognizing low grade equine effluvium, such as the statement above, is second nature for us. Yet our joy in life is converting hard numbers into knowledge and perspective so that people with high intellects (that would be you, kind reader) will see through such comical statements as what the nightly news anchor uttered. The basic take-away Starting in the early 1990s, after two decades of steadily rising violent crime rates, all forms of crime started dropping. This includes homicides. But after 1993 (more on that in a moment), while the … Continue reading →

Crime Leads Gun Buying

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Which came first, the crime or the guns? Statistically, crime rates appear to precede gun sales … and for some obvious reasons. Main take-aways In 29% of states, there is a significant correlation between firearm homicides and gun sales. In the top half of states, per raw correlations, 85% have firearm homicides preceding gun sales. Lead/lag times of one to three years shows 22–28% of states having crime leading gun sales, and between 6-11% of states having gun sales leading crime. The Basic Debate The basic debate surrounding whether gun sales lead to gun crimes is kinda stupid.

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Background Checks and Homicides

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If retail gun purchase background checks are any indication, sales of guns may keep some crime down. Backgrounds Checked The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) recently released a report on background checks. Though not every state was covered, the 40 reported gives of an unexpected view into homicides and recent gun sales. But before we dive in, here is the list of caveats: Only looks at 2016/7 data, so a snapshot in time. Gun sales may lag behind changes in local violence, so there is an unspecified lead/lag issue. Since the BJS also tells us that a minimum of 40% of crime guns come from street sources (not subject to background checks), looking at retail checks and crime might produce weak results anyway. Up, Up and Away Between 1999 and 2017, the U.S. population rose 16% while the number of background checks for gun purchases rose 99%. Clearly, America has … Continue reading →

Mental Breakdown

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“You gotta be crazy to shoot a bunch of strangers dead!” Yes. Crazy and untreated. A deeper dig into the mass public shooting (MPS) database with the most detailed mental health insights reveals that the American mental health system is ailing. High Level Takeaways 68% of MPS perpetrators have mental illness. Of those, 65% of them never received treatment. Of perpetrators who were previously suicidal, only half received treatment. Mood disorder medications have an outsized influence. The Violence Project Database A product of government funding and greater access to medical records, the Violence Project database of MPS has the most complete accounting of the mental health status of MPS perpetrators. Their database starts in 1966 with the legendary University of Texas tower shooting and goes on through early 2020. They also have nearly complete records of the perp’s mental health history, including rarified data such as the perp’s suicidality, their … Continue reading →

Ghost Gun Gong Show

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“Criminals are taking advantage of this loophole to obtain guns that are later used in crimes.” In California, perhaps. Elsewhere “ghost guns” are the “assault weapon” for the new millennium… rarely used, marginally worrisome, and perhaps a byproduct of strict gun control laws. The Summary Data Worst case, 1.7% of crime guns are DIY (e.g., “ghost guns”). But when the top six outlier cities (all in California) are excluded, the rate drops to 1.1%. 34% of agencies recovered no ghost guns. This compares to 8% of crime guns that have no visible serial numbers (obliterated + DIY). California is the primary state having DIY guns in circulation, averaging 8% of crime guns. What We Did to Tally DIY Guns used in crime We sent public records requests to the top 100 police agencies in the United States and asked them to tell us for 2019: How many crime guns were … Continue reading →

Pale Background

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Universal background checks aren’t universal. But such things are being proposed in Congress. Ignoring how poorly the laws are drafted, we have to ask the basic question, “Will universal background checks do any good?” The answer is that conceivably 2% of crime gun transfers might get diverted, but the more likely number is zero. High Level Takeaways 37% of crime guns fall into the realm of those that “universal” background checks would affect. Of those, 41% still come from unregulatable sources. Assuming “intimate” partners would not do background checks, at most 2% of crime gun transfers would receive background checks … and that assumes all “friends and family” firearm transfers obey (huge assumption). How the Bureau of Justice Statistics Tipped Us Off For many years the Gun Facts project has been showing off this little graphic, compliments of the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), an agency of the federal government … Continue reading →

Suicide, Survival and Guns

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“Guns are inherently more lethal in committing suicides!” Yet when we looked at W.H.O global suicide data, we discovered that the most suicidal country at the time (Lithuania) had about three times the rate of suicides, 1% as many guns per capita, and nearly everyone killing themselves used rope. In the USA, where guns are abundant, the data skewed in odds ways. We think we know why, but with a lack of absolute data, it is a little speculative. The Quick Take-aways Suicide “deaths” are those regardless of medical attention. Successful suicide victims receive no EMT or hospital treatment. EMT/hospitalization is effective for some modes of suicide and not others. The big clue We at the Gun Facts project have routinely noted the international disconnect between firearm ownership and suicide rates. In short, the availability of a gun did not affect the probability of a successful suicide. Looking at just … Continue reading →

Callous Kids

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One aspect of inner-city violence with guns From crime statistics and criminology studies we know that: Gun violence is a huge problem in poor, inner-city neighborhoods. The prime gang recruitment ages are between 14 and 19. Gun carrying, almost always done illegally, is common. An open question is “what drives these bad decisions, to associate with street gangs, acquire guns illegally, and to use them?” Here is one element worth noting: that emotionally callous kids are more prone to gun play than others. What is “callousness”? Both the dictionary and the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM) of Mental Disorders defines this. The dictionary definition is more straightforward and says to be callous is to be “insensitive, indifferent, unsympathetic”. The DSM has a special specifier identifying people with “limited prosocial emotions”. Same thing, different wording. A new study studied if callous kids were (a) more likely to carry a gun and … Continue reading →

What leads To Mass Public Shootings?

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That is the big question everyone is asking. You, I, even your crazy Uncle Jim who never “got over ‘Nam” don’t shoot-up elementary schools or their company headquarters. That leaves us to wonder what makes mass public shooters different that the rest? What causes them to disconnect from reality and society to the point where mass murder seems like a good idea to them? Well, we now may have some numbers to (partially) answer the question.

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Ammo Background … Checked

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The Gun Facts project received a provocative question: “We’ve had a few years of California’s Prop. 63. Can we point to any numbers that show whether the ammo background check law is having the desired effect?” The answers are: “Yes, we have numbers; no, it didn’t have an impact; but there are a lot of gotchas in the analysis.” The two experimental states Both New York and California passed laws that require criminal background checks before you can buy firearms and gun ammunition from a gun shop. New York passed their law in 2013 and California in 2017. These two states –The State of COVID and the State of Emergency – passed these measures along with other gun control actions (California, for example, established procedures for enforcing laws prohibiting firearm possession by specified persons), so it is technically impossible to weed out just ammunition retailing as a factor. But we … Continue reading →