Category Archives: Crime and Guns

City Size and Police Professionalism

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Local culture, local economics, and perhaps local police professionalism may be key drivers to lower gun homicide rates … even when the potential for street gang activity is high. Take-Aways Some, slightly fragile, indication that the professionalism of a law enforcement agency is associated with lower gun murder rates Cops and Gangs In our rather detailed Top 15 Murder County study, we noticed that among the most murderous counties, there was a  combination of low police staffing and a high percentage of the population that were males of street gang age. With new and very detailed data via the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS), we thought to look at cities instead of counties, knowing that core cities (Chicago) more that the surrounding county (Cook County) might offer some validation of what we saw at the county level. But … nothing is that straightforward. Crime data remains messy. Less messy than … Continue reading →

Gun Violence Audit – 2025

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You have to be a little crazy to take gun violence analysis to the extremes we do. This article, an audit of many things we can derive from the FBI’s database of 13,916,425 crime victims in 2023, is just the latest example of our data derangement. Take-aways 87% of gun crimes result in no or only minor injuries. Deaths occur in 10% and serious injuries in 3%. Only 40% of gun crime offenders are arrested in the same year. Arrest rates fall sharply in high-population counties. Wholesale Data We have a project at Gun Facts that we jokingly named “Data Whore” while conceptualizing it. Unfortunately, the name stuck, and it appears in too many places within our internal systems to change now. The goal was to establish a database system (PostgreSQL, for the geeks out there) to load in long-term data and thus be able to correctly extract details at … Continue reading →

Homicide Breakdown 2023

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The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) recently diced homicide data for 2023. Some of the data is not surprising, and some is. Take-aways Homicides and gun use skew significantly to the demographics of street gangs. The Dismal Reminder   Much of the BJS’s report amplifies what has been seen in criminology data for decades, namely that being a young, black male puts you in the crosshairs… quite literally.

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Gun Homicides by Household

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How many household guns are used in homicides? Nearly none. Takeaways Aside from career crimes and gang related activities, 0.004% of households with guns are involved in gun homicides. What Started This Analysis A podcast interviewer sent me a set of questions with which to prep, and he asked about private gun ownership and crime in a way I had not seen phrased before. Given some advances in data and insights into gun homicides, I felt the open question needed to be addressed. The core question was: “Outside of intentional or spontaneous criminal activities (gangs, robberies, burglaries, aggravated assaults, etc.) what percentage of private gun owners committed a gun homicide?”

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Universal Background Bust

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“Universal” background checks are anything but universal. Criminals don’t bother. Which is why we see only modest changes in some states that passed such laws, though the average of all such states shows a tiny increase in gun murders. That tiny increase was significantly lower than in states without such laws. Take-aways A small net increase in gun homicide rates (all things being equal) after passing universal background checks A tiny but larger increase in the same period for state that lacked such laws There were significant, concurrent anti-crime initiatives during some enactment periods which muddies the picture The Concept and The Reality “Universal” background checks impose a requirement on private gun buyers and sellers to conduct a background check on the buyer as would occur in a gun store. This is a case of “nibbling around the edges.” The Bureau of Justice Statistics tells us

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Gangs, Recidivism and Guns

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The revolving door of incarceration spins like a cyclone for street gang members. Since gangstas have a propensity for gun violence, this issue is part of solving gun violence in America. Take-aways Between 1,556 and 2,304 new street gang gun murders per year are committed by prisoners released for prior gun violence offenses, amounting to 10.5–15.5% of gun homicides Upwards of 11,520 people are shot (injured or killed) by these released gang members each year. What the academics calculated We checked in with academic libraries and were surprised at how little work has specifically addressed recidivism of gang members. After discarding studies with tiny, and thus statistically fragile samples, and setting aside one that amalgamated both street and prison gangs, we had two left to gauge how often street gang members go back to prison. Gang Members Non-Gang Members Higher Risk 3 years 35.4% 23.5% 150% 5 years 83.2% 42.8% … Continue reading →

Recidivism and Violence

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Some criminals never learn. Well, actually most don’t. But when it comes to violence, and hence gun violence, this is an important part of the puzzle. Take-aways 2% of prison admissions are for violent crimes. 64% of admitted prisoners had their first arrest in the teen years. 30% of them account for 51% of prior arrests. Large, Oldish Data, Frustrating Study When a reputable (and positively OCD) organization like the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) reviews over 90,000 newly incarcerated convicts, and repeats the stunt 15 years later, you have an admirably robust study. Which had one aching gap.

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Young Thugs in California

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California is the home of the original “gangsta paradise” which was exported nationally. As such, a large study of the gang membership in California secondary schools helps to understand the scope of the overall gang problem, and by proxy how to reduce gun violence. Take-aways 4% of surveyed students claimed to be gang members. The rates are skewed by race and align with National Gang Center demographics. Big Sample, Biggish Problem Surveying 667,610 secondary students constitutes a large study, and thus the resulting numbers should be solid approximations… despite a possible self-reporting bias. The study covered 57 of 58 California counties over two years. They polled 667,610 secondary students in grades 7, 9 and 11, and after the few who dropped out of the survey or were for other reasons disqualified, about 31% of the enrolled population were sampled. Quite impressive. The weakness of the study, though, was that students … Continue reading →

Firearm Violence, (non) Surprises

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The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) gives government a good name. At a time when the FBI’s crime data program switch-over caused massive under-reporting and the COVID+defund+riot era spiked crime, BJS once again provided data that helps understand the realities. Most of the data was unsurprising, but some stood out. Take-Aways Non-fatal gun violence fell alongside homicides after 1993. Much of the non-fatal data appears associated with gang demographics and modes. Half of gun violence is not reported to the police, relying instead on “street justice.” The Report click any image to enlarge The boringly titled report “Trends and Patterns in Firearm Violence, 1993–2023” provides a three-decade long look at sundry aspects of guns, violence, crime, gangs and so forth. The starting date for the report was the first of four straight years when 24 states, with over 50% of the nation’s population, passed habitual offender laws. This is a … Continue reading →

Pondering Permits

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Though it is difficult to ignore the possible unconstitutionality of requiring a permit to exercise an enumerated right, some states require residents to obtain a permit before they can purchase a handgun (or any gun). But do these permits make any difference? Some activist groups say so. Some academic studies say either yes or no. That a minimum of 43% of crime guns come from underground markets would indicate any effect would be marginal. After that… it gets complicated. Takeaways Permit-to-purchase laws have no material effect on gun homicide or suicide rates. The 1993-era anti-crime legislative movement limits pure test cases. A Dearth of Data Permit-to-purchase (PTP) laws have been touted as preventatives for homicides, suicides and gunshot injuries. We can measure the first two, not the last.

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