Category Archives: Crime and Guns

California Con

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There must be an election coming. The current California governor is making presidential maneuvers and the New York Times appears to be propping up his (inaccurate) statements about guns. I lived in that politician’s home turf for 22 years, during his political rise, so I have a deeper than average interest – and knowledge – of what the reality is, and in which alternate reality the politician resides. Main Take-aways California’s gun homicide rate is exactly the national average. Their overall suicide rate is rising, but is 29% lower that national averages, which bends the curve on gun suicide rates. For mass public shootings, California has 17% more incidents and 60% more deaths than the national average. The New York Times agitprop In a rather choice bit of partisan hackery, the New York Times (NYT) makes the following assertions about California and guns.

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Single Parent Gun Violence

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Does not having a father in the home increase the odds of committing a homicide? It appears so, though there are a few factors that complicate things. But leave it to say that fatherless homes might be manufacturing more murders. Major Take-aways Both homicide and firearm homicide rates are well associated with fatherless homes. This matches with nonmarital birth rates by some demographics. A Bit-o-Background Any number of studies have focused on race, urbanization, and poverty as contributing factors to young men murdering. For decades criminologists have noted that the odds of being a murder victim or perpetrator is vastly higher if you are poor, live in a metropolitan area, and are black. Many people openly speculate that part of the puzzle might be the disruption of traditional family structures within the inner cities.

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D.C. Guns and Gangs

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If Washington, D.C. is an indicator, criminal justice reform should start with reforming criminals. A recent dive into gun homicides in the nation’s capital shows that gun violence there remains a street gang problem, as is the case in most metro areas. Take-aways Most gun homicides are committed by “gang age” males. Half of suspects have been in the criminal judicial system since their juvenile ages. All (on average) had prior charges of firearm violence. A likely minimum of 52% of homicides are gang or gang nexus related. Guns in D.C. after decades of banning guns Let’s start by noting that D.C. is the per capita murder capital as well as the nation’s capital.

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Illegal Guns and ”Disadvantage”

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It is not news that “illegal guns” are the bulk of crime guns and that they are endemic in poor, inner-city neighborhoods. But it is good to have another datapoint. Take-Aways Legal availability of firearms is not correlated with firearm homicides. However, illegal firearm availability is. The number of firearm laws is not associated with firearm homicides either. Firearm homicide rates are amplified by economic and social disadvantages and family disruption. The Study and Proxy Paranoia A 2021 study, attempted to gauge legal and illegal firearm availability and measure those against firearm homicides. The authors also examined social factors including family disruption, economic disadvantage, youth disengagement, and more. The study represents an innovative approach to segregating misuse of legally obtained guns and illegally obtained guns.

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Fed Fail on Guns?

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“What is the use of having sentencing guidelines if judges don’t follow them?” This is a common refrain from people of a “law and order” mindset, which included most of America in the early 1990s after the country endured a multi-decade, stratospheric climb in violent crime. To summarize this and related positions, the public believed that “locking up violent predators for extended periods works.” A recent report sheds a little more light on the subject and may well certify the notion. Take-aways: Firearm homicides increase when referrals for federal gun crimes decrease. Likewise, reducing the number of people charged with gun crimes is associated with an increase in firearm homicides. Reducing sentencing for gun crimes is associated with an increase in firearm homicides. This might be via a political shift that led to changes in referring, charging and sentencing for gun crimes and the associated higher penalties. Get-Tough Laws Starting … Continue reading →

Gang Triangulation

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When it comes to gun violence, it’s tough to beat street gangs. They have made a sport of it. But the spooky question has been, “How much gun violence is gang violence?” Thanks to a little triangulation on our part, we think it is amplissimum. Major Take-aways Gangs likely constitute 85% of firearm homicides in the US. There is a close correlation between metropolitan gang-age homicides and estimates of gang populations by degrees of urbanization. The Data Dearth For all the great scorekeeping the FBI does, when it comes to murder, they have understandable gaps. Every year the FBI reports on the circumstances that led to a homicide, in their Expanded Homicide Tables. There are two rows of data that list what police were absolutely certain were gang related murders.

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Guns Not Used in Crime

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What portion of America’s guns are used in crime? Somewhere between 0.00001% and 0.00477%, depending on the type of gun and crime. Take-aways Due to the repeat offenders, some guns get used in multiple gun crimes. Omitting likely crime repetitions, the number of guns in circulation used in crime drops. The combination of all gun types and the two major gun crimes means a mere 0.00477% of the gun supply is being used in crime. Multiple Uses, One Gun For years people have been taking estimates of the number of guns in public hands and dividing that into the number of gun crimes committed each year, to get a rough guess as to whether being “awash” in guns creates a problem. Typically, these rough takes estimate that less than 1% of guns are used in a crime any year. The problem is that this is a radical over-estimate. We know … Continue reading →

Targeting Firearm Homicides

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To control 41% of gun homicides, target men in their early adulthood and living in metropolitan areas. Major Takeaways For victims and offenders, the concentration is in this group. These clusters are also closely statistically associated with blacks, though not isolated to any race. Limitations and Warnings Due to limitations within data sources, we pulled firearm homicide data from the CDC, and total homicide offender data from the FBI. This means there is some disassociation in the data, but since firearms figure prominently in homicides in general, and particularly in street gang homicides, variability is limited. We also had to adjust for different age groups between the CDC and the FBI data. All race-based numbers are population adjusted (i.e., homicide rates for any race are based on the number of people of that race, not the overall population). Who Gets Shot, Who Does the Shooting The fact is that gun … Continue reading →

Incarceration, Handguns and Homicides

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“The homicide rate is going up because there are more guns!” That was a hysterical statement made by a talking head on a television news network. Sadly, this fellow is considered to be a journalist by people who evidently don’t own dictionaries or know of Edward R. Murrow. At the Gun Facts project, we pour through so much data that recognizing low grade equine effluvium, such as the statement above, is second nature for us. Yet our joy in life is converting hard numbers into knowledge and perspective so that people with high intellects (that would be you, kind reader) will see through such comical statements as what the nightly news anchor uttered. The basic take-away Starting in the early 1990s, after two decades of steadily rising violent crime rates, all forms of crime started dropping. This includes homicides. But after 1993 (more on that in a moment), while the … Continue reading →

Crime Leads Gun Buying

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Which came first, the crime or the guns? Statistically, crime rates appear to precede gun sales … and for some obvious reasons. Main take-aways In 29% of states, there is a significant correlation between firearm homicides and gun sales. In the top half of states, per raw correlations, 85% have firearm homicides preceding gun sales. Lead/lag times of one to three years shows 22–28% of states having crime leading gun sales, and between 6-11% of states having gun sales leading crime. The Basic Debate The basic debate surrounding whether gun sales lead to gun crimes is kinda stupid.

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