Gun Violence Archive Assessment

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The Gun Violence Archive (GVA) is not a gold-standard data source. It isn’t even a reliable source. Yet it is commonly, and tragically, cited by people in the media who don’t know enough about gun violence data and criminology to understand why they should avoid citing GVA. We’ll attempt to clarify that. Take-aways about GVA History of data quality issues Incomplete scope of data Invents terms that do not comport with established definitions No transparency on operations and methods What the Heck is GVA? According to some, GVA is a real-time database of gun violence and an important research tool. To others it is an insult to serious researchers and a detriment to public education, and a naked agitprop tool. The truth is in between.

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Top 15 Murder Counties

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When 0.5% of all counties, with 8% of the people, account for 25% of the homicides, you must pay attention. When those same counties, on average, have five times the murder rate than the average of all other counties, you must pay attention to details. When those 15 counties are also known to be dominated by a single city with a reputation for gang violence, you must pay attention to why people in those cities are different than the rest of the country. But, what makes those 15 counties uniquely violent? Major Takeaways 1% of counties with any homicides have 24.9% of the homicides, but only 8.4% of the population in counties where gun homicides occur. The states with these Hot 15 Counties have evenly distributed gun law scores ranging from A- to F by a gun control advocacy group. A number of factors (including population density, teen-age poverty, and … Continue reading →

Grounded

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“Stand your ground” laws are very misunderstood and heavily politicized. And from a data perspective, they don’t do much at all, though they appear to be a net positive. Take-aways “No duty to retreat” states saw mild declines in both total homicide and gun homicide rates. The majority of “no duty to retreat” states saw declines, where the majority of other states saw increases. Can You Stand It? The name itself, “stand your ground,” is a heroic meme and a bit of a misnomer. However, the non-politicized term “no duty to retreat law” is both cumbersome and provides neither the pro- or anti-gun factions with a phrase to inspire their followers… or fill them with dread. Indeed, “stand your ground” (the pro-gun phrase) evokes a “cowboy American” posture while “shoot first law” (the anti-gun phrase) evokes endangering chaos. Stripped of such fluffiness, “no duty to retreat” laws are two things … Continue reading →

Tracking Transgressors

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In a perfect world, a gun would tell you who used it in a crime … over and over again. Such is the stuff of science fiction. Gun serial numbers really don’t help (more on that later). But one program and set of sciences is helping to expose repeat offenders and maybe get serious bad actors off the streets. Take Aways 96% of guns recovered in crime are linked to one or more additional cases. 83% of guns were used in two or more crimes. These statistics may be low due to staffing problems in forensic labs. Repeat offenders and guns We know from decades of criminology and some indirect evidence that among the criminal class, there are some super predators who repeatedly misuse guns. Ignore for the moment perps like ATM muggers and liquor store bandits who rarely fire their guns at anyone (instead, the gun is used as … Continue reading →

Rust Pipeline

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There is no “iron pipeline” of guns trafficked from low gun control states to high ones. There is a rust pipeline of legally migrating guns mainly between neighboring states. Take-aways Most crime guns are retailed in the state where they were recovered, including in high gun control states. Most intrastate guns come from neighboring states, including other high gun control states. Most guns legally follow owners when they move between states, which frequently are neighboring states. Approximately 6,000,000 guns at minimum move legally between states each, and of these, 433,000 move between neighboring states Crime guns are largely local One reality is that most crime guns are retailed in the same state where they were recovered. Across all states, 68% of traced guns were retailed in the same state where they were recovered. But there are significant variations. Due to decades of restrictions, Washington, DC (not a state, but worth … Continue reading →

Mass Attacks – Broadly Reviewed

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Mass stabbings don’t get as much media attention as mass shootings. Likewise for mass burnings, drownings or hit-and-runs. Since guns are the weapon in 73% of mass attacks, understanding mass attacks of all types might be key to preventing mass shootings. The federal government has studied this. Take-aways Non-gun mass attackers are not different than gun mass attackers. Changes in behavior precede stressors, the latter triggering attacks. The mental health community is letting at-risk people fail. Mass public attack stats The National Threat Assessment Center (NTAC), oddly a function of the Secret Service, cataloged five years of mass public attacks, which they define as when three or more people (not including perpetrators) were harmed in public or semi-public places. Like the Violence Project’s work on mass public shootings, NTAC looked deeply into the perpetrators’ lives, motives, modus operandi and more. It is important research for two reasons: motives of mass … Continue reading →

Medicated Murderers

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Psychiatric prescribing of psychotropic medications may be contributory to mass public shootings (MPS). Main Takeaways Increased use of psychotropic medications is associated with increased frequency of MPS. Non-psychiatric prescribing of these drugs is not strongly associated with overall MPS frequency. Psychotropic medications are associated with elevated rates of homicide, hence also associated with MPS. Perps receiving medications and psychiatric counseling are strongly associated, indicating mental health professionals are not catching warning signs. Over a quarter of a million at-risk and unmanaged adults are statistically likely to have “hostile” reactions from their drugs. A note about data and correlations Before going into a summary, much less the detailed data, know that this is not a one-problem-fits-all conclusion. There is no singular driver of MPS. What is herein is an exploration of trends in how America is (mis)medicating the population and how it may well contribute to some/many MPS. The data is … Continue reading →

Gun Deaths and Religion

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I once joked that San Francisco was “spiritually horny.” It is true, being the birthplace of the Church of Satan, home of Jim Jones, and containing the largest concentration of upper-middle-class white Buddhists on the planet. And a lot of Catholics. Between the Spanish missions and a flood of Irish, you often can tell how many miles you have driven in California by how many Catholic churches you have passed. It also explains California’s low “gun death” rate. Takeaways Religious affiliation changes suicide statistics Places with higher percentages of Catholic and non-Christian congregants have fewer suicides. Since guns are a favored American means of suicide, this ripples into lower gun suicide rates and thus lower “gun death” rates. The Culture Clues Culture is the major determinant variable for violence, including violence upon oneself. In our book “Guns and Control”, we made the following cultural comparison: Last time I checked, the … Continue reading →

School Shootings Stats

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“We don’t live in more violent times. We live in more televised times.” – Marilyn Manson He is right and wrong, and one influences another. And such influences affect what happens in schools. A really long-term study has some clues. Take-aways Television bent the curve on the frequency of mass school shootings around 1966. Average death rates in school shootings has doubled since 1966. High school males are the top problem spot. 175 years of “data” A recent (2017) academic paper sought to dig into school shootings going all the way back to 1840. Audacious, but we have to accept that mining data before the advent of modern national media is a bit risky. A school shooting might have only made county news in 1899, but it’s national news today. Before wee dive in, we’ll note that the definition used in this paper was broad. Specifically, “An event is included … Continue reading →

Newsom’s Gun Gaff

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“California has the toughest gun safety laws in the nation.” —Gavin Newsom Problem is, it has made no difference. Take-aways California’s suicide rate is low due to demographics. California’s gun homicide rate is slightly below average and tied with states with nearly no gun laws. Gun laws and gun homicide rates do not correlate at all, denuding claims about “toughest gun safety laws.” The suicide slide

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