Single Parent Gun Violence

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Does not having a father in the home increase the odds of committing a homicide? It appears so, though there are a few factors that complicate things. But leave it to say that fatherless homes might be manufacturing more murders. Major Take-aways Both homicide and firearm homicide rates are well associated with fatherless homes. This matches with nonmarital birth rates by some demographics. A Bit-o-Background Any number of studies have focused on race, urbanization, and poverty as contributing factors to young men murdering. For decades criminologists have noted that the odds of being a murder victim or perpetrator is vastly higher if you are poor, live in a metropolitan area, and are black. Many people openly speculate that part of the puzzle might be the disruption of traditional family structures within the inner cities.

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Permitless Murders

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In August of 2022, half of the states in America will (or did, depending on when you read this) switch to “permitless carry,” which means residents (and, depending on the state, occasionally non-residents) can carry firearms concealed in public and not have to obtain a permit first. Naturally, this scares some people. So, with seven states currently having been permitless long enough for analysis, it’s worth seeing if the fear is warranted. Main Take-Aways Compared to states that made no changes in concealed carry laws, there was no change in homicide rates. When we remove one outlier state, there is a drop in homicides in the permitless states compared to states that made no change. When we eliminate a sparsely populated frontier state, most trends are flat or downward. Comparing Apples and Pineapples Our objective is to see if states switching to permitless carry have a noticeable change in the … Continue reading →

Trends in Mass Public Shootings

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The largest multilingual international database of mass public shootings (MPS) tells us that they are increasing globally, less rapidly in the United States, but the average number of deaths in American MPSs is rising faster than the world at large. Let us then look at some of the factors that may contribute to mass shootings and see if there are rising rates of underlying causes. Main Take-aways 41% of mass public shooters with mental health issues got their guns legally, and the rate is rising. MPSs are on the rise, but not steeply. Handguns are outpacing all other weapon types, including “assault weapons.” Higher capacity magazines are radically increasing in use. The rate of legally acquired guns is rising much faster than illegally obtained guns. Precautions and Notes Repeat after me… mass public shootings are statistically rare events, and as such, trends and isolating causes are of a fragile nature.

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D.C. Guns and Gangs

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If Washington, D.C. is an indicator, criminal justice reform should start with reforming criminals. A recent dive into gun homicides in the nation’s capital shows that gun violence there remains a street gang problem, as is the case in most metro areas. Take-aways Most gun homicides are committed by “gang age” males. Half of suspects have been in the criminal judicial system since their juvenile ages. All (on average) had prior charges of firearm violence. A likely minimum of 52% of homicides are gang or gang nexus related. Guns in D.C. after decades of banning guns Let’s start by noting that D.C. is the per capita murder capital as well as the nation’s capital.

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Illegal Guns and ”Disadvantage”

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It is not news that “illegal guns” are the bulk of crime guns and that they are endemic in poor, inner-city neighborhoods. But it is good to have another datapoint. Take-Aways Legal availability of firearms is not correlated with firearm homicides. However, illegal firearm availability is. The number of firearm laws is not associated with firearm homicides either. Firearm homicide rates are amplified by economic and social disadvantages and family disruption. The Study and Proxy Paranoia A 2021 study, attempted to gauge legal and illegal firearm availability and measure those against firearm homicides. The authors also examined social factors including family disruption, economic disadvantage, youth disengagement, and more. The study represents an innovative approach to segregating misuse of legally obtained guns and illegally obtained guns.

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Mental Mass Contrast

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It is well established that most mass public shooters (MPS) have mental health problems. The question is whether they are more prone to instability than the public and by how much. The answer is upwards of nine times as unstable. Major Take-aways Depending on the subtopic, MPSs are 1.4 to 9.0 times more likely to have mental health problems. Most commonly, they have “thought disorders” – a characteristic of psychotic mental illness – at nine times the rate of the general public. The Violence Project and Their Book We have discussed the Violence Project and mental health before. They study MPS due to significant funding (for which we are green with jealously) and unprecedented access to uncommon data. They have produced the most comprehensive database on MPS available. The Gun Facts project will continue to maintain our mass public shooting database because we track important variables that the Violence Project … Continue reading →

Fed Fail on Guns?

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“What is the use of having sentencing guidelines if judges don’t follow them?” This is a common refrain from people of a “law and order” mindset, which included most of America in the early 1990s after the country endured a multi-decade, stratospheric climb in violent crime. To summarize this and related positions, the public believed that “locking up violent predators for extended periods works.” A recent report sheds a little more light on the subject and may well certify the notion. Take-aways: Firearm homicides increase when referrals for federal gun crimes decrease. Likewise, reducing the number of people charged with gun crimes is associated with an increase in firearm homicides. Reducing sentencing for gun crimes is associated with an increase in firearm homicides. This might be via a political shift that led to changes in referring, charging and sentencing for gun crimes and the associated higher penalties. Get-Tough Laws Starting … Continue reading →

Mass Global Mix-up

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“Mass public shootings are rising faster around the world than in the United States!” “Mass public shootings are rising faster in the United States than the rest of the world!” Stuff like this makes me dislike Twitter even more than I normally do. That I saw these contradictory statements, each citing “real data,” within 60 seconds of one another was my first clue that the pro- and anti-gun camps were shouting past one another and that somebody was not paying attention. Why the division? It comes down to definitions and data sources. The Data Disagreement Two academics – John Lott and Adam Lankford – have published papers that calculate the number of mass public shootings (MPSs) around the globe. These papers come to different conclusions and have caused one of these two to abandon the normal congenial language normally bandied by studied men and women. Geek smarminess aside, we see … Continue reading →

Gang Triangulation

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When it comes to gun violence, it’s tough to beat street gangs. They have made a sport of it. But the spooky question has been, “How much gun violence is gang violence?” Thanks to a little triangulation on our part, we think it is amplissimum. Major Take-aways Gangs likely constitute 85% of firearm homicides in the US. There is a close correlation between metropolitan gang-age homicides and estimates of gang populations by degrees of urbanization. The Data Dearth For all the great scorekeeping the FBI does, when it comes to murder, they have understandable gaps. Every year the FBI reports on the circumstances that led to a homicide, in their Expanded Homicide Tables. There are two rows of data that list what police were absolutely certain were gang related murders.

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Permit Punditry

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North Carolina is thinking about ending its Jim Crow era law requiring a permit to purchase a handgun. Naturally one side claims that an Armageddon of gun play will follow. The other side is saying “Oh, calm down, you Dixiecrats.” Who is right can be demonstrated with surprising ease. Major Take-Aways Purchase permits do not impede gun violence and might encourage it. Lack of such permits do not increase gun violence. The Purpose and Unspoken Purpose of Handgun Purchase Permits The common justification for purchase permits is so that the local constabulary (typically the county sheriff) can ensure that only non-criminal types can obtain a permit and thus buy a handgun at retail outlets (gun stores today, hardware stores back when many of these laws were originally enacted). Most states went further and disallowed private sales of handguns without a permit, often enforced by also requiring the private sales to … Continue reading →