Author Archives: Editorial Team

Worth the Wait?

Gun Facts Posted on by

Do waiting periods help or hurt? The answer is “it’s messy,” but in short, they are ineffective. Take-aways Only one of 16 study combinations showed any significant change. On one statistical measure, the effects in the other 15 combinations were likely random. The Claim Advocates claim that waiting periods reduce homicides and suicides. The theory (which, as you will see, is wrong) is that some significant number of murders and suicides occur spontaneously. Advocates proffer that a person who gets angry or depressed goes to a gun store and then murders someone or kills themselves right away. This assumption does not conform with what we know about most gun homicides and suicides.

Continue reading →

The Gun Facts CCW Scorecard (first edition)

Gun Facts Posted on by

It is time for a new method of grading states based on their concealed-carry regimes. Gun Facts has created one, and the findings are stark. Why Is A New System Needed? The old system classified states by the generality of how concealed-carry permits (CCWs) were provided. The major classifications were: No Carry: Carrying firearms in public was not allowed. May Issue: The government, largely local, had discretion on if and to whom a permit would be issued. Shall Issue: Providing a person was not prohibited (i.e., prior felony conviction) the government would issue a permit. Permitless: No permit was required providing you were not a prohibited person. However, this system was in and of itself inadequate, and the Supreme Court’s ruling in the Bruen case changed much. The weaknesses of the old classification system were manifold:

Continue reading →

Homicide Breakdown 2023

Gun Facts Posted on by

The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) recently diced homicide data for 2023. Some of the data is not surprising, and some is. Take-aways Homicides and gun use skew significantly to the demographics of street gangs. The Dismal Reminder   Much of the BJS’s report amplifies what has been seen in criminology data for decades, namely that being a young, black male puts you in the crosshairs… quite literally.

Continue reading →

Universal Background Bust

Gun Facts Posted on by

“Universal” background checks are anything but universal. Criminals don’t bother. Which is why we see only modest changes in some states that passed such laws, though the average of all such states shows a tiny increase in gun murders. That tiny increase was significantly lower than in states without such laws. Take-aways A small net increase in gun homicide rates (all things being equal) after passing universal background checks A tiny but larger increase in the same period for state that lacked such laws There were significant, concurrent anti-crime initiatives during some enactment periods which muddies the picture The Concept and The Reality “Universal” background checks impose a requirement on private gun buyers and sellers to conduct a background check on the buyer as would occur in a gun store. This is a case of “nibbling around the edges.” The Bureau of Justice Statistics tells us

Continue reading →

Young Thugs in California

Gun Facts Posted on by

California is the home of the original “gangsta paradise” which was exported nationally. As such, a large study of the gang membership in California secondary schools helps to understand the scope of the overall gang problem, and by proxy how to reduce gun violence. Take-aways 4% of surveyed students claimed to be gang members. The rates are skewed by race and align with National Gang Center demographics. Big Sample, Biggish Problem Surveying 667,610 secondary students constitutes a large study, and thus the resulting numbers should be solid approximations… despite a possible self-reporting bias. The study covered 57 of 58 California counties over two years. They polled 667,610 secondary students in grades 7, 9 and 11, and after the few who dropped out of the survey or were for other reasons disqualified, about 31% of the enrolled population were sampled. Quite impressive. The weakness of the study, though, was that students … Continue reading →

Firearm Violence, (non) Surprises

Gun Facts Posted on by

The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) gives government a good name. At a time when the FBI’s crime data program switch-over caused massive under-reporting and the COVID+defund+riot era spiked crime, BJS once again provided data that helps understand the realities. Most of the data was unsurprising, but some stood out. Take-Aways Non-fatal gun violence fell alongside homicides after 1993. Much of the non-fatal data appears associated with gang demographics and modes. Half of gun violence is not reported to the police, relying instead on “street justice.” The Report click any image to enlarge The boringly titled report “Trends and Patterns in Firearm Violence, 1993–2023” provides a three-decade long look at sundry aspects of guns, violence, crime, gangs and so forth. The starting date for the report was the first of four straight years when 24 states, with over 50% of the nation’s population, passed habitual offender laws. This is a … Continue reading →

School Guns and Non-Disaster

Gun Facts Posted on by

“Teachers carrying guns … “ Want to start an argument? Utter that line at a cocktail party. But is it a problem, a solution, or both? As for as being problematic, it largely isn’t. Takeaway The number of gun discharges on campuses in almost immeasurably small. Most of the problems are police/security having accidental discharges. These account for 0.04 incidents per year per state. The Iffy Data One of the gun control advocacy groups created a “scare the public” web page listing instances of adults with a gun on “school” grounds. We put quotes there because more than a few of the schools on the activist organization’s roster were vocational schools and colleges. When discussing “arming teachers,” the public tends to visualize this as pertaining to K–12 schools only. But that isn’t the only defect in their raw data. They extracted the tally of incidents from the Gun Violence Archive … Continue reading →

TASSS and Accuracy

Gun Facts Posted on by

There is a lot of public confusion about school shootings. Some of this is intentional, due to data manipulation by activist groups. Some of it is because researchers are highly inconsistent about definitions and approaches. The good news is that there is a high-quality database that shows us a lot of interesting information about shootings in K–12 schools. The bad news is that the raw data is not publicly available, but we’ll get to that gripe later. Takeaways Media-cited K–12 shooting databases overstate such events by 40%. Most K–12 shooting events are in major metro areas and exceed their population-based share. Many K–12 shooting events share M.O. profiles of street gang retaliatory action. 26% of K–12 shooting perpetrators are “unknown” and not charged. Reliable Sourcing A small number of databases have been generated by sundry people and organizations in an attempt to document school shootings. Some of these data sets … Continue reading →

Habitual Effects

Gun Facts Posted on by

Repeat offenders in prison are not committing crimes on the streets. This was proven when in a national revolt over spiraling crime, 24 states passed habitual offender laws in just four years. The effects are compelling. Take-aways States with habitual offender laws: Incarcerate 73% more violent offenders. Reduce violent crime by 85%. Reduce homicides by 49%. The Prelude to Three-Strikes

Continue reading →

Gun Violence Archive Assessment

Gun Facts Posted on by

The Gun Violence Archive (GVA) is not a gold-standard data source. It isn’t even a reliable source. Yet it is commonly, and tragically, cited by people in the media who don’t know enough about gun violence data and criminology to understand why they should avoid citing GVA. We’ll attempt to clarify that. Take-aways about GVA History of data quality issues Incomplete scope of data Invents terms that do not comport with established definitions No transparency on operations and methods What the Heck is GVA? According to some, GVA is a real-time database of gun violence and an important research tool. To others it is an insult to serious researchers and a detriment to public education, and a naked agitprop tool. The truth is in between.

Continue reading →