Incarceration, Handguns and Homicides — 4 Comments

  1. Great graphic and message! Of course the left will say everything is different in the last 5 years that you don’t graph, presumably because the data is not yet compiled from the various sources.

    • Thanks for the compliment on the graphic.

      If anyone is worries about it, you are right in that not all data source report to the current year. CDC WONDER cuts off at 2016 (as of the date of this post) and old FBI UCR data is not easy to fetch anymore.

      That being said, the core data showing the pre- and post 1993 citizens’ revolt vis-a-vis rising crime rates if perfectly valid, and that was the point of the analysis.

  2. Hi Guy, Thanks for the timely and relevant comparison. Questions: Handguns in circulation and homicides are straight fact, but (to me, at least) the red line is at risk of being subjective. Can you share how that was derived? (is it just a count of laws in effect that can be earmarked as applicable?) Homicide rates turned and show constant velocity higher from 2014. Did your crew identify a likely cause for that abrupt reversal?

    • Thanks for the note and sanity check.

      The read line, incarcerations,m comes from the Bureau of Justice Statistics and their ongoing National Prisoner Statistics Program. As far as raw data is concerned, it is “gold standard”. They survey the prison administrators of the 50 states,, and the federal prison system, then divide by the U.S. population.

      As for the homicide leveling, there are no clear variables we have tested for to show why. But we note that the incarceration rate started to drop shortly before the rise in homicides. This is due, in part, to state governments not liking the expense of running prisons, various judges ordering releases, etc. I won’t say this is a cause and effect relationship, but it is worth pondering.

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